Dynamic Analysis
- Cost Estimate
The Budgetary and Economic Effects of S. 2488, the Raise the Wage Act of 2023
As introduced on July 25, 2023
- Presentation
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.
- Working Paper
Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Working Paper
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget: Working Paper 2023-07
On a present-value basis, CBO estimates that long-term fiscal effects of Medicaid spending on children could offset half or more of the program’s initial outlays, depending on sets of reasonable parameter values.
- Blog Post
Short-Term Spending and Long-Term Dynamic Effects
Some federal policies involve short-term expenditures that result in economic and budgetary effects far in the future. CBO has been building analytic capacity to consider a dynamic framework for policies that would have long-term effects.
- Cost Estimate
H.R. 3938, Build It in America Act
As reported by the House Committee on Ways and Means on June 30, 2023
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.
- Report
The Economic and Budgetary Effects of Discretionary Funding Caps as Specified in the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023
CBO has estimated what the economic and budgetary effects would be if the discretionary funding caps enacted in June 2023 had been those required under H.R. 2811, the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023.
- Report
CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis of Legislation, Health Care Modeling, and Support for the Legislative Process
In response to a request from Chairman Arrington, CBO provides information about the agency’s ongoing work in macroeconomic analysis of legislation, health care modeling, and support for the legislative process.
- Working Paper
Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inflation: Implications of Supply Disruptions and Economic Slack: Working Paper 2023-05
This paper provides evidence that supply disruptions, low economic slack, and the interaction of restrained supply with low slack each amplify the effects of expansionary fiscal policies on inflation.