Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Report
Updated Estimates of the Effects of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act, April 2014
CBO and JCT have lowered their estimates of the net federal cost of the ACA’s insurance coverage provisions—to $1.4 trillion over the next decade, about $100 billion less than estimated in February.
- Blog Post
Updated Estimates of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act
CBO’s updated estimates of the effects of the Affordable Care Act’s insurance coverage provisions, which were published in the agency’s recent report on the budget and economic outlook, do not differ much from those released in May 2013.
- Report
Revisions to CBO's Projection of Potential Output Since 2007
CBO examines the change in its projections of potential output for the year 2017: The estimate for that year that CBO prepared in February 2014 is about 7 percent lower than what it projected in January 2007.
- Working Paper
The Long-Run Effects of Federal Budget Deficits on National Saving and Private Domestic Investment: Working Paper 2014-02
This paper reviews CBO’s estimates of the effects of changes in federal deficits on national saving and private domestic investment.
- Blog Post
U.S. Labor Market Has Recovered Slowly and Only Partially Since the End of the Recession
The slow recovery of the labor market largely reflects slow growth in the demand for goods and services. Output will grow more rapidly in the next few years than it has recently but recovery in the labor market will take some time.
- Blog Post
Economic Growth Is Projected to Be Solid in the Near Term, but Weakness in the Labor Market Will Probably Persist
CBO projects that the economy will grow more rapidly from 2014 to 2017—at an average rate of about 3 percent a year—than it did in 2013. But the unemployment rate will decline only gradually, finally dropping below 6.0 percent in 2017.
- Blog Post
Federal Revenues Are Projected to Increase Significantly Over the Next Two Years and Remain Steady as a Share of GDP Thereafter
Revenues are projected to continue rebounding from a post-recession low of 14.6 percent of GDP in 2009 and 2010—rising to 18.2 percent in 2015. They are projected to stay between 18.0 percent and 18.4 percent of GDP from 2016 through 2024.
- Presentation
CBO’s Outlook for the Economy
Presentation by Doug Elmendorf, CBO Director, to the National Association for Business Economics
- Blog Post
CBO’s Projections of Federal Spending Over the Next Decade
Under current law, outlays for Social Security, major health care programs, and net interest will grow over the coming decade, CBO estimates, while spending for other programs will decline relative to the size of the economy.
- Blog Post
Presentation to the National Association for Business Economics
How will the labor market evolve? How rapidly will potential and actual output grow? What will be the paths of inflation and interest rates? Director Doug Elmendorf addressed these and other questions about CBO's outlook for the economy.