Taxes
- Presentation
CBO’s Projections of Realized Capital Gains Subject to the Individual Income Tax
This slide deck provides additional information about CBO’s February 2023 baseline projections of capital gains realizations, which decrease from an estimated high of 8.7 percent of GDP in 2021 down to 3.7 percent of GDP by 2033.
- Blog Post
Director’s Statement on the Budget and Economic Outlook for 2023 to 2033
CBO Director Phillip Swagel discusses the current budget and economic outlook.
- Report
Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, February 2023
CBO projects that, if the debt limit is not raised or suspended, the government’s ability to issue additional debt—other than to replace maturing securities—will be exhausted between July and September 2023.
- Presentation
The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2023 to 2033 in 9 Slides
CBO Director Phillip Swagel briefs members of the press on the current budget and economic outlook.
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033
In CBO’s projections, the federal deficit totals $1.4 trillion in 2023 and averages $2.0 trillion per year from 2024 to 2033. Real GDP growth comes to a halt in 2023 and then rebounds, averaging 2.4 percent from 2024 to 2027.
- Blog Post
CBO to Release Updated Budget and Economic Projections on February 15
CBO will release "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033" and "Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, February 2023," at 2 p.m. EST on February 15.
- Cost Estimate
CBO Estimate for Divisions O Through MM of H.R. 2617, the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023, Enacted as Public Law 117-328 on December 29, 2022
Public Law 117-328 as enacted on December 29, 2022
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2022
In its July 2021 projections for fiscal year 2022, CBO underestimated revenues by 10 percent and outlays by 5 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit for 2022 was more than the actual amount by 0.8 percent of GDP.
- Report
CBO’s 2022 Long-Term Projections for Social Security
In CBO’s projections, spending on Social Security exceeds revenues to the program in 2022 and increases relative to GDP over the next 75 years, while revenues remain stable. If combined, the program’s trust funds would be exhausted in 2033.
- Working Paper
Current Work on the Distributional Analysis of Household Income Resulting From Policy Changes: Working Paper 2022-09
This paper introduces a standardized framework to analyze how policy changes alter the distribution of household income to complement CBO’s analyses of policy changes’ budgetary and economic effects.