The size of the policy changes that would be needed to reduce or constrain the growth of federal debt depends on the chosen goal for the amount of debt, and the timing of such changes involves various trade-offs.
CBO Blog
How large would federal debt be in 25 years if current laws remained generally unchanged, and what would be the consequences of large and growing federal debt?
Three factors explain the projected substantial growth in a few of the government’s large programs: the aging of the population, rising health care spending per beneficiary, and the ACA’s expansion of federal subsidies for health insurance.
Over the next 25 years, revenues are projected to fall well short of spending if current laws stay generally the same. Why is that the case?
Director Doug Elmendorf testified on CBO's latest report on the long-term budget outlook. Also today, CBO issued "The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook in 26 Slides," which highlights the key points of the analysis.
If current laws remained generally unchanged, federal debt held by the public would exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2039 and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
CBO examined the implications of various approaches to altering the Social Security payroll tax rates as well as the taxable maximum (the maximum amount of earnings on which those payroll taxes are imposed).
The federal government ran a budget deficit of $366 billion for the first nine months of fiscal year 2014, CBO estimates—$144 billion less than the shortfall recorded over the same span last year.
The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook will be available on CBO’s website at 10:00 a.m. on the day of release.
Using the rising amounts of renewable transportation fuels required by the Renewable Fuel Standard will be difficult. CBO looks at how those requirements and alternatives would affect fuel and food prices and greenhouse gas emissions.