June 2023

CBO assesses its two-year and five-year economic forecasts and compares them with forecasts of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus, an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts.

In CBO’s projections, spending for Social Security increases relative to GDP over the next 75 years, and the gap between outlays and revenues widens. If combined, the program’s trust funds would be exhausted in fiscal year 2033.

The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.

CBO will release its long-term budget projections on June 28 and an update to its economic forecast for the next three years on July 31.

This week, four analysts from CBO's Health Analysis Division are presenting their work at the 12th Annual Conference of the American Society of Health Economists ("ASHEcon") in St. Louis, Missouri.

Deficit reductions under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 reduce projected federal debt in 2033 by about 3 percent, from $46.7 trillion (or 119 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP) to $45.2 trillion (or 115 percent of GDP).

The federal budget deficit was $1.2 trillion in the first eight months of fiscal year 2023, CBO estimates—$735 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year.

CBO announces the current members of its Panel of Economic Advisers.

CBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2023 to 2033 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1973.

CBO Director Phillip Swagel discusses his recent and upcoming presentations on CBO’s latest budget projections and fiscal outlook.