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- Report
In its 2019 projections for fiscal year 2020, CBO underestimated revenues by 9 percent and outlays by 3 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit in 2020 was more than the actual amount by 0.5 percent of GDP.
- Report
The average error for CBO’s budget-year revenue projections is 1.2 percent, indicating the agency has tended to slightly overestimate revenues. For the agency’s sixth-year revenue projections, the average error is greater—5.6 percent.
- Working Paper
Oil prices are one of the economic variables that underlie CBO's projections of the federal budget. This paper describes CBO's methods to forecast oil prices and evaluates the quality of the agency's historical forecasts.
- Report
On February 10, the Administration transmitted its annual set of budgetary proposals to the Congress. CBO estimates that in the coming decade deficits under those proposals would be smaller and debt held by the public would be lower than amounts in CBO’s baseline projections—but larger than the Administration projected. CBO’s estimates do not account for changes to the nation’s economic or fiscal outlook arising from the recent public health emergency.
- Recurring Data
- Recurring Data