In this report, the Congressional Budget Office provides additional information about the economic projections that the agency released on February 1, 2021.
As expanded vaccination reduces the spread of COVID-19 (the disease caused by the coronavirus) and the extent of social distancing declines, real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2021, returning to its level from before the 2020–2021 coronavirus pandemic by the middle of the year.
With growth averaging 2.6 percent over the 2021–2025 period, real GDP surpasses its potential (maximum sustainable) level in early 2025. The unemployment rate gradually declines through 2026, and the number of employed people returns to its prepandemic level in 2024.
Real GDP growth averages 1.6 percent over the 2026–2031 period. That average growth rate of output is less than its long-term historical average, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Over the forecast period, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes is projected to rise gradually, reaching 3.4 percent in 2031.