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- Report
CBO describes federal net interest outlays and their projected growth over the coming decade.
- Report
In its 2019 projections for fiscal year 2020, CBO underestimated revenues by 9 percent and outlays by 3 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit in 2020 was more than the actual amount by 0.5 percent of GDP.
- Report
When analyzing proposals and programs whose costs depend on whether or not some uncertain variable reaches a specified trigger level, CBO considers a range of possible outcomes and their associated probabilities.
- Report
The average error for CBO’s budget-year revenue projections is 1.2 percent, indicating the agency has tended to slightly overestimate revenues. For the agency’s sixth-year revenue projections, the average error is greater—5.6 percent.
- Report
CBO describes how estimates of the budgetary effects of enacted legislation are recorded and used to meet requirements for budget enforcement under the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010.
- Working Paper
Oil prices are one of the economic variables that underlie CBO's projections of the federal budget. This paper describes CBO's methods to forecast oil prices and evaluates the quality of the agency's historical forecasts.
- Report
Using FCRA procedures, CBO estimates that new loans and loan guarantees issued in 2021 would result in savings of $41.8 billion. But using fair-value estimates, CBO projects that they would have a lifetime cost of $46.8 billion.
- Report
From the end of 2008 to 2019, the amount of federal debt held by the public nearly tripled. This report describes federal debt, various ways to measure it, CBO’s projections for the coming decade, and the consequences of its growth.
- Report
This document explains the updated format of CBO’s formal cost estimates, which highlights a bill’s effects on major components of the federal budget for the current year and subsequent years in the budget window.
- Interactive
This workbook allows users to enter an alternative scenario for productivity growth, labor force growth, inflation, or interest rates and see estimates of revenues, several types of spending, and deficits under those scenarios.