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- Working Paper
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Working Paper
This paper presents a practical method for assessing the uncertainty of long-term economic projections.
- Working Paper
CBO developed a Markov-switching model to help incorporate asymmetric dynamics into macroeconomic projections and cost estimates that require simulations of the national unemployment rate.
- Working Paper
This paper reports CBO’s projections of economic and budgetary outcomes under two scenarios with divergent paths for interest rates.
- Working Paper
CBO uses the budgetary feedback model (BFM) to estimate how changes in the macroeconomy might affect the federal budget. This paper describes how the BFM is constructed, how it is used in CBO's dynamic analyses, and the model's limitations.
- Working Paper
The costs of federal activities are recorded in the budget mostly on a cash basis. Using accrual accounting for retirement and insurance programs would accelerate the recognition of long-term costs and display the expected costs of new commitments when they were incurred.
- Working Paper
On average over the long term, each increase of 1 percentage point in federal debt as a percentage of GDP boosts interest rates by 2 to 3 basis points, CBO estimates.
- Working Paper
This paper examines various factors that affect estimates made by CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation of the budgetary savings from tax compliance proposals.
- Working Paper
This paper presents the latest generational accounts and lifetime net tax rates for the United States.