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- Working Paper
This paper introduces a standardized framework to analyze how policy changes alter the distribution of household income to complement CBO’s analyses of policy changes’ budgetary and economic effects.
- Working Paper
CBO used a general-equilibrium, overlapping-generations model to analyze the economic and distributional implications of five illustrative single-payer health care systems. The working paper builds on previous CBO studies about single-payer health care systems.
- Working Paper
This paper examines how the federal budget deficit would have differed in 2018 under four scenarios that vary the distribution of labor earnings while leaving aggregate earnings unchanged.
- Working Paper
Distributional Effects of Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions With a Carbon Tax: Working Paper 2021-11
This paper describes CBO’s method for measuring the distributional effects of a tax on carbon emissions and the agency’s rationale for choosing that method, while also comparing it with CBO’s prior method and methods used by other researchers.
- Working Paper
This working paper combines theory and existing empirical evidence to revisit the extent to which payroll taxes are passed through to employees. The estimates rely on stylized models and are complemented by a discussion of the empirical literature on payroll tax incidence.
- Working Paper
CBO uses the budgetary feedback model (BFM) to estimate how changes in the macroeconomy might affect the federal budget. This paper describes how the BFM is constructed, how it is used in CBO's dynamic analyses, and the model's limitations.
- Working Paper
The costs of federal activities are recorded in the budget mostly on a cash basis. Using accrual accounting for retirement and insurance programs would accelerate the recognition of long-term costs and display the expected costs of new commitments when they were incurred.
- Working Paper
On average over the long term, each increase of 1 percentage point in federal debt as a percentage of GDP boosts interest rates by 2 to 3 basis points, CBO estimates.
- Working Paper
CBO’s analysis of the distribution of household income relies on data from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS). This paper describes how CBO adjusts for the underreporting of government transfers by CPS respondents.
- Working Paper
This paper examines how a 20 percent depreciation of foreign currencies with respect to the U.S. dollar affects the wealth of U.S. residents and evaluates how that effect would be distributed across U.S. households by income group.