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- Working Paper
This paper reports CBO’s projections of economic and budgetary outcomes under two scenarios with divergent paths for interest rates.
- Working Paper
This paper examines how the federal budget deficit would have differed in 2018 under four scenarios that vary the distribution of labor earnings while leaving aggregate earnings unchanged.
- Working Paper
This paper describes key methods that the Congressional Budget Office used to estimate the effects on economic output of the laws enacted in response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.
- Working Paper
Oil prices are one of the economic variables that underlie CBO's projections of the federal budget. This paper describes CBO's methods to forecast oil prices and evaluates the quality of the agency's historical forecasts.
- Working Paper
CBO uses the budgetary feedback model (BFM) to estimate how changes in the macroeconomy might affect the federal budget. This paper describes how the BFM is constructed, how it is used in CBO's dynamic analyses, and the model's limitations.
- Working Paper
The costs of federal activities are recorded in the budget mostly on a cash basis. Using accrual accounting for retirement and insurance programs would accelerate the recognition of long-term costs and display the expected costs of new commitments when they were incurred.
- Working Paper
On average over the long term, each increase of 1 percentage point in federal debt as a percentage of GDP boosts interest rates by 2 to 3 basis points, CBO estimates.
- Working Paper
This paper presents CBO’s model of business investment, compares it with other models of investment, shows how the model is estimated, and discusses how CBO uses the model to forecast investment.
- Working Paper
Describing the methods used to produce CBO’s projections of labor force participation rates, this paper examines the recent trends in the overall and prime-age labor force participation rates and whether those trends persist over 10 years.
- Working Paper
This paper documents CBO’s model of potential output. It describes the data, analytic methods, and modeling framework used to estimate historical values of the components of potential output and to project those values into the future.