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To show how variations in economic conditions might affect its budget projections, CBO analyzed how revenues, outlays, and deficits might change if the values of key economic variables differed from those in the agency’s forecast.
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The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.
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CBO provides an update to an earlier estimate of the effects of a potential sequestration under the caps established by the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023.
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In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.
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In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people in 2054. Net immigration increasingly drives population growth, accounting for all population growth beginning in 2040.
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Learn more about CBO, its work, and its processes in an introduction to the agency that is typically updated at the start of each Congress or a new session.
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CBO reports annually on programs whose authorizations of appropriations have already expired or will expire. This data file covers legislation enacted through September 30, 2023. A full report will be issued later this year.
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CBO provides information concerning implementation of the caps on most discretionary funding for fiscal year 2024 as established by the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023.
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CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs in 2024 in two ways—following procedures prescribed by the Federal Credit Reform Act and using a fair-value approach, which measures the market value of the government’s obligations.
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The Senate Committee on the Budget convened a hearing at which Phillip L. Swagel, CBO's Director, testified about Social Security’s finances. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record.