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The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.
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In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.
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In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people in 2054. Net immigration increasingly drives population growth, accounting for all population growth beginning in 2040.
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The Senate Committee on the Budget convened a hearing at which Phillip L. Swagel, CBO's Director, testified about Social Security’s finances. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record.
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CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.
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CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, testifies about the agency’s projections of Social Security’s finances before the Senate Budget Committee.
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In CBO’s projections, spending for Social Security increases relative to GDP over the next 75 years, and the gap between outlays and revenues widens. If combined, the program’s trust funds would be exhausted in fiscal year 2033.
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The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.
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The Subcommittee on Social Security of the House Committee on Ways and Means convened a hearing at which Phillip L. Swagel, CBO's Director, testified. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record.
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CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, testifies about the agency’s projections of Social Security’s finances before the House Ways and Means Committee’s Subcommittee on Social Security.