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To show how variations in economic conditions might affect its budget projections, CBO analyzed how revenues, outlays, and deficits might change if the values of key economic variables differed from those in the agency’s forecast.
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The House Committee on the Budget convened a hearing at which Phillip L. Swagel, CBO's Director, testified. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record.
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The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.
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CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, testifies before the House Budget Committee.
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In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.
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CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies before the House Committee on the Budget.
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CBO was asked what the effects on federal deficits would be if the economy was stagnant over two years. The agency created two scenarios with no growth of gross domestic product adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.
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In its May 2022 projections for fiscal year 2023, CBO overestimated revenues by 11 percent and underestimated outlays by 9 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal deficit for 2023 was less than the actual amount by 3.9 percent of GDP.
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This report presents CBO’s projections of revenues and outlays for the 2023–2033 period translated into the framework of the national income and product accounts and their categories of current receipts and expenditures.
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CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.