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- Working Paper
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Working Paper
CBO's small-scale policy model determines in one model the short-run demand-driven responses and long-run supply-driven responses to policy changes. It also makes short- and long-run responses depend on the fiscal policy under study.
- Working Paper
This working paper analyzes the long-term economic effects of financing a large and permanent increase in government expenditures of 5 percent to 10 percent of gross domestic product annually.
- Working Paper
This paper describes key methods that the Congressional Budget Office used to estimate the effects on economic output of the laws enacted in response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.
- Working Paper
CBO uses the budgetary feedback model (BFM) to estimate how changes in the macroeconomy might affect the federal budget. This paper describes how the BFM is constructed, how it is used in CBO's dynamic analyses, and the model's limitations.
- Working Paper
On average over the long term, each increase of 1 percentage point in federal debt as a percentage of GDP boosts interest rates by 2 to 3 basis points, CBO estimates.
- Working Paper
This working paper describes the methods and calculations CBO used in its August 2015 baseline projections to estimate the effects of the Affordable Care Act on the labor market.
- Working Paper
Federal receipts and certain federal outlays regularly respond to cyclical movements in the economy. CBO released a working paper on how it estimates the size of those automatic stabilizers, for both past years and future years.
- Working Paper
This paper asks: What models do economists use to estimate the fiscal multiplier (for proposed changes in taxes and government spending)? Why do estimates of it vary widely? And how can economists use those estimates to analyze U.S. economic policy?
- Working Paper
This paper reviews CBO’s estimates of the effects of changes in federal deficits on national saving and private domestic investment.