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- Working Paper
CBO's small-scale policy model determines in one model the short-run demand-driven responses and long-run supply-driven responses to policy changes. It also makes short- and long-run responses depend on the fiscal policy under study.
- Interactive
CBO's interactive tool allows users to simulate the agency's process for projecting discretionary budget authority and outlays for different types of spending over the course of 10 years.
- Interactive
This workbook allows users to define and analyze alternative economic scenarios by specifying differences in the values of four economic variables from those underlying CBO's May 2022 projections.
- Interactive
This interactive workbook allows users to see how revenues and outlays that differed from those in CBO’s May 2022 baseline budget projections would increase or decrease net interest costs and thus affect deficits and debt.
- Working Paper
This paper presents a practical method for assessing the uncertainty of long-term economic projections.
- Working Paper
This paper presents a risk-neutral approach that CBO uses to inform its estimates of the fair-value cost of mortgage obligations.
- Working Paper
CBO developed a Markov-switching model to help incorporate asymmetric dynamics into macroeconomic projections and cost estimates that require simulations of the national unemployment rate.
- Working Paper
This paper reports CBO’s projections of economic and budgetary outcomes under two scenarios with divergent paths for interest rates.
- Working Paper
This paper reviews theory and evidence on how consumers and firms form their expectations about inflation and how monetary policymakers might influence that process; both of those factors have implications for CBO's baseline projections and policy analyses.
- Working Paper
CBO used a general-equilibrium, overlapping-generations model to analyze the economic and distributional implications of five illustrative single-payer health care systems. The working paper builds on previous CBO studies about single-payer health care systems.