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- Working Paper
This paper extends a 2019 analysis by Olivier Blanchard by separating total estimated welfare effects of debt into crowding-out and risk-shifting components and estimates the effects of those components under alternative assumptions about technology and preferences.
- Working Paper
This paper introduces a standardized framework to analyze how policy changes alter the distribution of household income to complement CBO’s analyses of policy changes’ budgetary and economic effects.
- Working Paper
CBO's small-scale policy model determines in one model the short-run demand-driven responses and long-run supply-driven responses to policy changes. It also makes short- and long-run responses depend on the fiscal policy under study.
- Interactive
CBO's interactive tool allows users to simulate the agency's process for projecting discretionary budget authority and outlays for different types of spending over the course of 10 years.
- Interactive
This workbook allows users to define and analyze alternative economic scenarios by specifying differences in the values of four economic variables from those underlying CBO's May 2022 projections.
- Interactive
This interactive workbook allows users to see how revenues and outlays that differed from those in CBO’s May 2022 baseline budget projections would increase or decrease net interest costs and thus affect deficits and debt.
- Working Paper
This paper presents a practical method for assessing the uncertainty of long-term economic projections.
- Working Paper
This paper presents a risk-neutral approach that CBO uses to inform its estimates of the fair-value cost of mortgage obligations.
- Working Paper
CBO developed a Markov-switching model to help incorporate asymmetric dynamics into macroeconomic projections and cost estimates that require simulations of the national unemployment rate.
- Working Paper
This paper reports CBO’s projections of economic and budgetary outcomes under two scenarios with divergent paths for interest rates.