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- Report
The House Committee on the Budget convened a hearing at which Phillip L. Swagel, CBO's Director, testified. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record.
- Working Paper
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Report
CBO analyzes the Department of Defense’s plans for 2024 through 2028 as presented in the 2024 Future Years Defense Program. Under those plans, CBO projects, defense costs would increase by 10 percent between 2028 and 2038.
- Report
CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.
- Report
CBO has estimated what the economic and budgetary effects would be if the discretionary funding caps enacted in June 2023 had been those required under H.R. 2811, the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023.
- Report
CBO examines how the discretionary spending proposals in the President’s 2024 budget compare with CBO’s most recent baseline budget projections, which span 2023 to 2033.
- Blog Post
CBO will release a report updating its 10-year budget baseline on May 12, and an analysis of the President’s 2024 discretionary proposals on May 18. Also in May, CBO will release an updated report on federal debt and the statutory limit.
- Presentation
This slide deck outlines the models CBO uses to assess the budgetary effects of alternative economic scenarios such as those presented in CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Budgetary Implications (November 2022).
- Presentation
This slide deck describes how CBO used a Markov-switching model to assess the uncertainty of the economic forecast presented in CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Budgetary Implications (November 2022).
- Presentation
Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model
This slide deck describes how CBO used a Bayesian vector autoregression model to assess the uncertainty of the economic forecast presented in CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Budgetary Implications (November 2022).