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- Report
In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic and the ensuing federal response had significant effects on the distribution of household income. Income inequality before transfers and taxes increased, but inequality after transfers and taxes decreased.
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The Senate Committee on the Budget convened a hearing at which Chapin White, CBO’s Director of Health Analysis, testified. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record.
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CBO estimates that the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation’s (CMMI’s) activities increased federal spending between 2011 and 2020 and will also increase it from 2021 to 2030. In 2010, CBO projected that CMMI would produce savings.
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In 2023, federal subsidies for health insurance are estimated to be $1.8 trillion, or 7.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). In CBO and JCT’s projections, those net subsidies reach $3.3 trillion, or 8.3 percent of GDP, in 2033.
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The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.
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CBO describes features of the Medicare and Medicaid improvement funds and how the funds are accounted for in CBO’s baseline and cost estimates.
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In this report, CBO uses various measures to assess the quality of its past projections of federal outlays. The analysis focuses on three fiscal years within each projection period: the budget year, the 6th year, and the 11th year.
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CBO estimates that Medicaid work requirements under H.R. 2811 would lead to lower federal costs, an increase in the number of uninsured people, no change in employment or hours worked by Medicaid recipients, and a rise in state costs.
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CBO estimates the budgetary effects of options for expanding federal Medicaid payments to states for services provided to Medicaid enrollees ages 21 to 64 who are in inpatient facilities known as institutions for mental diseases.
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In CBO’s projections, the federal deficit totals $1.4 trillion in 2023 and averages $2.0 trillion per year from 2024 to 2033. Real GDP growth comes to a halt in 2023 and then rebounds, averaging 2.4 percent from 2024 to 2027.