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- Working Paper
The costs of federal activities are recorded in the budget mostly on a cash basis. Using accrual accounting for retirement and insurance programs would accelerate the recognition of long-term costs and display the expected costs of new commitments when they were incurred.
- Working Paper
CBO uses a model to estimate the federal budgetary effects of proposed changes to the cost-sharing structure of the Medicare fee-for-service program. This paper describes that model, the analyses it can support, and an illustrative option for changing Medicare’s cost-sharing structure.
- Working Paper
This paper studies the current state of inflation dynamics using a Phillips curve model, assesses the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations, and analyzes the sensitivity of inflation to cyclical fluctuations of economic conditions.
- Working Paper
This paper develops an empirical model to forecast the effects on employee contribution rates and on employer costs if the federal government changed the employer match or the default contribution rate for participants in the Thrift Savings Plan.
- Working Paper
In this working paper, CBO analyzes how corporate income tax rates affect flows of trade between the affiliates of multinationals—known as related-party trade—to examine whether transfer prices are sensitive to tax differentials.
- Working Paper
CBO developed a new version its health insurance simulation model, HISIM2, including using new sources of input data. This paper describes the new input data and the methods for adjusting and adding to those data to form the sample used in HISIM2.
- Working Paper
Updating its approach to estimating the effects of changes to medical malpractice liability laws on federal spending, CBO explains how and why the modeling is changing and offers a preliminary estimate of the budgetary effects.
- Working Paper
In 2015, brand-name specialty drugs accounted for about 30 percent of net spending on prescription drugs under Medicare Part D and Medicaid, but they accounted for only about 1 percent of all prescriptions dispensed in each program.
- Working Paper
On average over the long term, each increase of 1 percentage point in federal debt as a percentage of GDP boosts interest rates by 2 to 3 basis points, CBO estimates.
- Working Paper
This paper considers alternative ways to privatize the U.S. Social Security system. It does so using a new rational-expectations simulation model based on the Auerbach and Kotlikoff (1987) model.