Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO's Director, at the 40th Annual National Bureau of Economic Research Tax Policy and the Economy Conference.
Summary
The next edition of CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook will reflect the impacts of the 2025 reconciliation act (Public Law 119-21) on the economy, spending, and revenues. That law extends many provisions of the 2017 tax act (Public Law 115-97) that had been scheduled to expire at the end of 2025.
To enhance its future projections, CBO regularly evaluates the accuracy of its past projections. In this presentation, CBO examines the accuracy of its projections from April 2018, which were the first to fully reflect the anticipated impacts of the 2017 tax act, and explores the reasons for differences between those projections and actual outcomes from 2018 to 2024.
These slides were prepared in conjunction with remarks by Phillip Swagel, CBO's Director, at the 40th Annual National Bureau of Economic Research Tax Policy and the Economy Conference.