In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit equals $3.0 trillion in fiscal year 2021 and averages $1.2 trillion per year over the 2022–2031 period, under the assumption that existing laws governing taxes and spending generally remain unchanged. Because of those large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to reach 103 percent of GDP at the end of fiscal year 2021 and 106 percent of GDP, the highest level in the nation’s history, in 2031.
Real GDP is projected to increase by 7.4 percent and surpass its potential level by the end of calendar year 2021. The annual growth of real GDP averages 2.8 percent from 2021 to 2025, and 1.6 percent during the 2026–2031 period. Employment is projected to grow quickly in the second half of calendar year 2021 and to surpass its prepandemic level in mid-2022.