This workbook allows users to define and analyze alternative economic scenarios by specifying differences in the values of four economic variables relative to the values for those variables underlying CBO's February 2021 projections.
This workbook allows users to define and analyze alternative economic scenarios by specifying differences in the values of four economic variables—productivity growth, labor force growth, interest rates, and inflation—relative to the values for those variables underlying the Congressional Budget Office's most recent projections. Those projections were published in The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031.
CBO has long published “rules of thumb” that provide a sense of how changes in key economic variables would affect its projections. The rules of thumb were described most recently in How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2020 to 2030. This workbook applies the agency's current rules of thumb to scenarios chosen by the user and provides estimates of how revenues, outlays, and deficits under those scenarios might differ from those in the agency's February 2021 baseline budget projections. The workbook also shows how some variables—including gross domestic product (GDP), real (inflation-adjusted) GDP, and interest rates—might change as a result.
The formulas underlying this workbook were created specifically for these interactive tables and are meant only to provide results that approximate those CBO would produce using its broad set of economic and budget models.