Legislation Enacted in the First Session of the 116th Congress That Affects Mandatory Spending or Revenues
CBO estimates the laws that were enacted in 2019 will add about $406 billion to the cumulative deficit from 2019 through 2029—the net result of a $422 billion reduction in revenues and a $16 billion reduction in outlays.
This CBO report summarizes the agency’s estimates of the budgetary effects of authorizing legislation enacted during the first session of the 116th Congress—which spans the period from January 3, 2019, through January 3, 2020—that affects mandatory spending or revenues. The estimates are for the enacted versions of the relevant laws. CBO prepared each estimate when the legislation was last considered by the Congress, measuring its costs against the baseline projections used for budget enforcement purposes by the House and Senate Committees on the Budget. For consistency, each estimate covers the same period as that used by CBO for its corresponding cost estimate during the Congressional session.
According to CBO’s estimates, the laws that were enacted during the first session of the 116th Congress will increase budget deficits in every fiscal year from 2019 through 2029. In total, CBO estimates, those laws will add about $406 billion to the cumulative deficit over that 10-year period—the net result of a $422 billion reduction in revenues and a $16 billion reduction in outlays.
Most of the estimated increase in the deficit stems from Public Law 116-94 (one of two consolidated appropriation bills enacted in December 2019). P.L. 116-94 repealed the excise tax on employment-based health insurance plans with premiums exceeding certain thresholds, an annual fee imposed on many health insurers, and an excise tax on certain medical devices; it also extended several dozen expiring tax provisions (and made other changes). When that legislation (H.R. 1865 in bill form) was being considered by the Congress, CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimated that its enactment would increase the deficit in every year from 2019 through 2029. In total, CBO and JCT estimated, P.L. 116-94 would decrease revenues by about $422 billion and increase outlays by $23 billion—for a net increase of $445 billion in the deficit—between 2019 and 2029.