Direct Spending and Revenue Effects for the Conference Agreement on H.R. 2
Relative to spending projected under CBO’s April 2018 baseline, CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 2 would increase direct spending by $1.8 billion and revenues by $35 million over the 2019-2023 period. Following the rules specified in the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985, CBO has incorporated the assumption that the changes made to those programs would continue after 2023, the final year of authorization under the conference agreement. On that basis, CBO estimates that direct spending and revenues would each increase by $70 million over the 2019-2028 period, resulting in no net change in deficits over the 10-year period.
For this estimate, CBO assumes that the conference agreement will be enacted by the end of calendar year 2018. Most of the current authorizations for agriculture and nutrition programs that are reauthorized by H.R. 2 expired at the end of fiscal year 2018. However, consistent with the rules governing baseline projections that are specified in the Deficit Control Act, CBO’s baseline incorporates the assumption that those programs will continue to operate after their authorizations expire in the same manner as they did before such expiration. Thus, the costs of extending those authorizations through 2023 are not included in the costs attributable to this conference agreement. CBO estimates that those costs would total $387 billion over the 2019-2023 period and $787 billion over the 2019-2028 period. Assuming enactment of H.R. 2, total spending under CBO’s baseline for agriculture and nutrition programs would be $428 billion over the 2019-2023 period and $867 billion over the 2019-2028 period.
Because enacting H.R. 2 would affect direct spending and revenues, pay-as-you-go procedures apply.
Further details about the changes in direct spending and revenues are displayed in the enclosed tables. Table 1 summarizes CBO’s estimate of the budgetary effects for the entire conference agreement; Table 2 shows CBO’s estimate of the budgetary effects by title; Table 3 shows estimates for specific provisions within the various titles of the conference agreement; and Table 4 provides estimates of the Pay-As-You-Go effects.
CBO estimates that enacting the conference agreement would not increase net direct spending or on-budget deficits relative to the baseline in any of the four consecutive 10-year periods beginning in 2029.
CBO has not estimated the additional discretionary spending that would result from implementing H.R. 2; such spending would be subject to future appropriation actions.
The conference agreement would impose intergovernmental and private-sector mandates as defined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA). In the aggregate, CBO estimates the costs of mandates on public entities would be below the annual threshold established in UMRA for intergovernmental mandates ($80 million in 2018, adjusted annually for inflation). The costs of mandates on private entities would exceed the annual threshold established in UMRA for private-sector mandates ($160 million in 2018, adjusted annually for inflation).