CBO Cost Estimates for H.R. 2 as passed by the House of Representatives and as passed by the Senate
Summary
On June 21, 2018, the House of Representatives passed H.R. 2, the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018. On June 28, 2018, the Senate passed H.R. 2, the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018. Both versions of the legislation would amend and extend some of the nation’s major programs for income support, food and nutrition, land conservation, trade promotion, rural development, research, forestry, horticulture, and other programs administered by the Department of Agriculture for five years through 2023.
As specified in law, CBO’s baseline spending projections incorporate the assumption that certain expiring programs administered by the Department of Agriculture continue to operate after their authorizations expire in the same manner as they did before such expiration. The costs of extending those authorizations through 2023 are not included in CBO’s estimates for H.R. 2 because they are already included in the baseline.
House-passed version of H.R. 2
CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 2 as passed by the House of Representatives would increase net direct spending by $2.3 billion over the 2019-2023 period and decrease net direct spending by $1.3 billion over the 2019-2028 period, relative to CBO’s baseline projections. CBO also estimates that enacting the legislation would increase revenues by $0.5 billion over the 2019-2028 period. In addition, the legislation would authorize the appropriation of specific amounts. Assuming appropriation of those specified amounts, CBO estimates that implementing those provisions would cost $24.5 billion over the 2019-2023 period.
H.R. 2, as passed by the House of Representatives, would impose intergovernmental and private-sector mandates as defined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA). In the aggregate, CBO estimates, the costs of mandates on public entities would exceed the annual threshold established in UMRA for intergovernmental mandates ($80 million in 2018, adjusted annually for inflation) in at least four of the first five years that the mandates were in effect. The costs of mandates on private entities would be below the annual threshold established in UMRA for private-sector mandates ($160 million in 2018, adjusted annually for inflation).
On May 2, 2018, CBO transmitted a cost estimate for H.R. 2, the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018, as ordered reported by the House Committee on Agriculture on April 18, 2018. Relative to the ordered reported version of H.R. 2, CBO estimates that the House-passed legislation would reduce direct spending by $1.8 billion over the 2019-2028 period.
Senate-passed version of H.R. 2
CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 2 as passed by the Senate would increase net direct spending by $1.6 billion over the 2019-2023 period and by $68 million over the 2019-2028 period, relative to CBO’s baseline projections. CBO also estimates that enacting the legislation would increase revenues by $68 million over the 2019-2028 period. In addition, the legislation would authorize the appropriation of specific amounts. Assuming appropriation of those specified amounts, CBO estimates that implementing those provisions would cost $23.7 billion over the 2019-2023 period.
H.R. 2, as passed by the Senate, would impose intergovernmental and private-sector mandates as defined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA). CBO estimates the costs of mandates on public entities would not exceed the annual threshold established in UMRA for intergovernmental mandates ($80 million in 2018, adjusted annually for inflation). The costs of mandates on private entities would exceed the threshold established in UMRA for private-sector mandates ($160 million in 2018, adjusted annually for inflation). One of the private-sector mandates—a prohibition on knowingly slaughtering and trafficking a cat or dog for human consumption—was not contained in the legislation as reported.
On June 21, 2018, CBO transmitted a cost estimate for S. 3042, the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018, as reported by the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, on June 18, 2018. Relative to the reported version of S. 3042, CBO estimates that the Senate-passed legislation would increase direct spending by $175 million and would increase revenues by $68 million over the 2019-2028 period.