S. Con. Res. 11, the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2016, instructed several committees of the House of Representatives to recommend legislative changes that would reduce deficits over the 2016-2025 period. This bill reflects the combined recommendations of the House Committees on Energy and Commerce, Education and the Workforce, and Ways and Means.
CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate that enacting H.R. 3762 would decrease deficits by about $130 billion over the 2016-2025 period. That estimate includes two components. First, excluding macroeconomic feedback effects, the legislation would reduce deficits by about $79 billion. In addition, the macroeconomic feedback would reduce deficits by an additional $51 billion, CBO and JCT estimate. Those effects would result from changes to both direct spending and revenues. The 2016-2025 total consists of $77 billion in on-budget savings and $53 billion in off-budget savings.
The largest budgetary effects of enacting the legislation would stem from:
- Repealing provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) that require most people to obtain health insurance coverage and large employers to offer their employees health insurance coverage that meets specified standards or pay penalties; and
- Repealing the federal excise taxes imposed on the sale of medical devices and on certain employer-provided health coverage with premiums above specified amounts.
Other parts of the legislation that affect the budget would:
- Repeal the requirement that certain large employers automatically enroll new employees in health insurance plans and continue the enrollment of current employees in a health insurance plan;
- Eliminate the Prevention and Public Health Fund and rescind any unobligated balances of the fund;
- Prohibit federal funds from being made available, for one year, to certain entities that provide abortions;
- Increase the amount of funding authorized and appropriated to the Community Health Center Fund; and
- Repeal provisions of the ACA that establish the Independent Payment Advisory Board.
As required by the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2016, CBO and JCT have assessed the effect of H.R. 3762 on long-term deficits and direct spending:
- Including macroeconomic feedback, CBO and JCT estimate that enacting the legislation would increase net direct spending as well as on-budget deficits by more than $5 billion in one or more of the four consecutive 10-year periods beginning in 2026.
- Excluding macroeconomic feedback, CBO and JCT estimate that enacting the legislation would not increase net direct spending by more than $5 billion in either of the first two consecutive 10-year periods beginning in 2026; however, the agencies are not able to determine whether enacting the legislation would increase net direct spending by more than $5 billion in the third or fourth 10-year period.
- Excluding macroeconomic feedback, CBO and JCT estimate that enacting the legislation would increase on-budget deficits by more than $5 billion in one or more of the four consecutive 10-year periods beginning in 2026.
Because enacting the legislation would affect direct spending and revenues, pay-as-you-go procedures apply.
CBO and JCT have determined that the legislation contains no intergovernmental or private-sector mandates as defined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act.