- Working Paper
This paper extends a 2019 analysis by Olivier Blanchard by separating total estimated welfare effects of debt into crowding-out and risk-shifting components and estimates the effects of those components under alternative assumptions about technology and preferences.
- Working Paper
This paper introduces a standardized framework to analyze how policy changes alter the distribution of household income to complement CBO’s analyses of policy changes’ budgetary and economic effects.
- Working Paper
CBO's small-scale policy model determines in one model the short-run demand-driven responses and long-run supply-driven responses to policy changes. It also makes short- and long-run responses depend on the fiscal policy under study.
- Working Paper
This paper presents a practical method for assessing the uncertainty of long-term economic projections.
- Working Paper
This paper presents a risk-neutral approach that CBO uses to inform its estimates of the fair-value cost of mortgage obligations.
- Working Paper
CBO developed a Markov-switching model to help incorporate asymmetric dynamics into macroeconomic projections and cost estimates that require simulations of the national unemployment rate.
- Working Paper
This paper reports CBO’s projections of economic and budgetary outcomes under two scenarios with divergent paths for interest rates.
- Working Paper
This paper reviews theory and evidence on how consumers and firms form their expectations about inflation and how monetary policymakers might influence that process; both of those factors have implications for CBO's baseline projections and policy analyses.
- Working Paper
CBO used a general-equilibrium, overlapping-generations model to analyze the economic and distributional implications of five illustrative single-payer health care systems. The working paper builds on previous CBO studies about single-payer health care systems.
- Working Paper
CBO has developed a model to estimate the effect that federal taxes have on capital income from new investment; it uses that model to help estimate how changes in tax law would affect the economy.