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CBO projects that if the debt limit remains unchanged, there is a significant risk that at some point in the first two weeks of June, the government will no longer be able to pay all of its obligations.
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Over recent decades, corporate economic profits have grown faster than the amounts that corporations pay in federal taxes. CBO examined the factors that explain why corporate tax payments have not grown with corporate economic profits.
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The federal budget deficit was $928 billion in the first seven months of fiscal year 2023, CBO estimates—$568 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year.
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To show how variations in economic conditions might affect its budget projections, CBO analyzed how revenues, outlays, and deficits might change if the values of key economic variables differed from those in the agency’s forecast.
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CBO reports annually on programs whose authorizations of appropriations have already expired or will expire.
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CBO describes features of the Medicare and Medicaid improvement funds and how the funds are accounted for in CBO’s baseline and cost estimates.
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In this report, CBO uses various measures to assess the quality of its past projections of federal outlays. The analysis focuses on three fiscal years within each projection period: the budget year, the 6th year, and the 11th year.
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CBO estimates that Medicaid work requirements under H.R. 2811 would lead to lower federal costs, an increase in the number of uninsured people, no change in employment or hours worked by Medicaid recipients, and a rise in state costs.
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CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, testifies about the agency’s projections of Social Security’s finances before the House Ways and Means Committee’s Subcommittee on Social Security.
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Lawmakers created the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in 2008 to stabilize financial markets. The TARP’s net cost will be $31 billion, CBO estimates—about the same as what the agency last reported in May 2022 and similar to OMB’s latest estimate.