CBO released the annual summer update to the Budget and Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018 today. (Today's report updates the Budget and Economic Outlook published in January 2008.)
CBO Blog
CBO released its Monthly Budget Review today. CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit was $486 billion in the first 11 months of the fiscal year, $212 billion more than the shortfall recorded over the same period last year. CBO anticipates that the government will realize a surplus in September, stemming from quarterly payments of estimated income taxes. The result will be a deficit in the vicinity of $400 billion for the fiscal year.
Today we released a paper on updated long-term projections for Social Security. (Our last long-term projection for social security was included in the December 2007 Long-Term Budget Outlook.) As CBO has highlighted in previous reports, the number of Social Security beneficiaries will grow considerably as the baby boomers become eligible for retirement benefits. Absent legislative changes, spending for the program will therefore climb substantially and exceed the programs revenues.
I recently gave a talk at the Retirement Research Consortium conference on the behavioral economics lessons gleaned from retirement research and how those lessons may be applicable to other pressing policy discussions. (I blogged about it here). In that speech I argued that the full benefit age seems to have a signaling effect on social security claiming behavior. The webcast of the speech is available here.
Contractors play a substantial role in supporting the United States current military, reconstruction, and diplomatic operations in Iraq, accounting for a significant portion of the manpower and spending for those activities.
CBO released a study today, conducted at the request of the Senate Committee on the Budget, on the use of contractors in the Iraq theater to support U.S. activities in Iraq. The webcast of the press briefing is available here.
CBO found:
Many of the most dramatic behavioral economics success stories come from work done in retirement research. Researchers have found, for example, that more workers participate in a 401(k) retirement plan if they are automatically enrolled (with the ability to opt out of the plan) than if they have to make an affirmative decision to participate.
CBO released the Monthly Budget Review today. CBO estimates that for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2008, the federal budget deficit was about $371 billion---$213 billion more than the deficit recorded over the same period in 2007. While revenues were about 1 percent lower than in the same period last year, outlays over the same period have grown by almost 9 percent.
I am testifying before the Committee on Ways and Means this morning at a hearing on promoting the adoption and use of health information technology. A link to the testimony can be found here. (The testimony is a reprise of CBO's recent health IT report, which I blogged about here).
CBO released a letter this morning that analyzes the Administration's July 14th proposal to provide temporary authority to the Secretary of the Treasury to purchase obligations and other securities issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks. The authority provided under this proposal would expire on December 31, 2009. (The Congress may consider a slightly modified version of the proposal, but it is unlikely that the modifications would have a significant effect on the estimated costs.)
CBO sent a letter today to Senator Conrad estimating the long-term fiscal effect of two personal income tax proposals. The first would index the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) for inflation beginning in 2008. The second would, in addition to indexing the AMT for inflation, also permanently extend the personal income tax provisions of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief and Reconciliation Act of 2001 (EGTRRA) and Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA) that otherwise would expire in 2010.