Monthly Budget Review

September 5, 2008

CBO released its Monthly Budget Review today. CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit was $486 billion in the first 11 months of the fiscal year, $212 billion more than the shortfall recorded over the same period last year. CBO anticipates that the government will realize a surplus in September, stemming from quarterly payments of estimated income taxes. The result will be a deficit in the vicinity of $400 billion for the fiscal year. CBO will release a new estimate of the 2008 deficit and updated baseline projections for fiscal years 2009-2018 on September 9.

Total receipts for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2008 were about 1.4 percent lower than receipts in the same period in fiscal year 2007, CBO estimates. Individual income taxes showed a decline in receipts of 3 percent, primarily due to tax rebates. Social insurance (payroll tax) receipts grew by about 4 percent, and corporate receipts fell by about 15 percent during the period.