Immigration

CBO estimates that permanently extending the expanded premium tax credit, nullifying a marketplace final rule, and repealing policies in the 2025 reconciliation act would increase deficits and the number of people with health insurance.

CBO provides details about its latest economic projections through 2028, which reflect several substantial changes in federal policy and economic developments that have occurred this year.

CBO projects that the U.S. population will increase from 350 million people in 2025 to 367 million people in 2055. It will be smaller and grow more slowly over the next 30 years, on average, than the agency previously projected it would.

CBO provides information about the effects of P.L. 119-21 (H.R. 1) on health insurance purchased through the ACA marketplaces and on improper receipt of subsidies, and the effects of a final rule published by HHS on marketplace subsidies.

CBO announces the release schedule for several publications next month that provide updated information on the federal budget, demographic trends, and the short-term economic outlook.

CBO estimates how the surge in immigration that began in 2021 affected state and local budgets in 2023. State and local tax revenues grew, but the costs of providing services grew more.

In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 350 million people in 2025 to 372 million in 2055, and the average age rises. Beginning in 2033, annual deaths exceed annual births, and net immigration accounts for the growth.

CBO periodically issues a compendium of policy options and their estimated effects on the federal budget. This report presents 76 options for altering spending or revenues to reduce federal budget deficits over the next decade.

An increase in immigration over the 2021–2026 period boosts federal revenues as well as mandatory spending and interest on the debt in CBO’s baseline projections, lowering deficits, on net, by $0.9 trillion over the 2024–2034 period.

Immigration increases total economic output, although not necessarily output per person. It also affects the federal budget through the taxes that foreign-born people pay and the government programs in which they participate.

CBO issues a volume that contains short descriptions of 59 policy options that would each reduce the federal budget deficit by less than $300 billion over the next 10 years.

In 2018, 46 million people living in the United States—or 14 percent of the population—had been born in other countries. CBO examines the employment and earnings of men and women by their legal immigration status, level of education, and birthplace.

Immigration increases total economic output, though not necessarily output per capita. It also affects the federal budget through the taxes that foreign-born people pay and the government programs in which they participate.

Proposals to modify U.S. immigration policy vary greatly in terms of their potential impact on the federal budget. CBO details the factors the agency considers when estimating the budgetary effects of proposed changes to immigration policy.