In addition to its work on the outlook for the federal budget over the next 10 years, CBO also analyzes how specific current policies, such as Social Security and Medicare, affect the outlook for the federal budget over a longer time horizon. That analysis is less concerned with economic developments over the next few years and more concerned with the underlying trends in such economic factors as the labor force, productivity, and the costs of health care.
Long-Term Economic Trends
Dec 2013 - Spending on the Social Security program will exceed its dedicated tax revenues, on average, by about 12 percent over the next decade, CBO projects. The gap will grow larger in the 2020s and will exceed 30 percent of revenues by 2030.
Sep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
The Long-Term Budgetary Impact of Paths for Federal Revenues and Spending Specified by Chairman Ryan
Mar 2012 - The calculations presented here represent CBO's assessment of how the specified paths would alter the trajectories of federal debt, revenues, spending, and economic output relative to the trajectories under two scenarios that CBO has analyzed previously.
Jan 2012 - This issue brief reviews how ages of eligibility affect beneficiaries under current law and how delaying eligibility would affect beneficiaries, the federal budget, and the economy.
Aug 2011 - CBO's first infographic summarizes some of the agency's most recent projections for Social Security and provides background information on the program.
- reportFebruary 28, 2014
The Long-Run Effects of Federal Budget Deficits on National Saving and Private Domestic Investment: Working Paper 2014-02working paperFebruary 28, 2014
Fiscal Policy Effects in a Heterogeneous-Agent Overlapping-Generations Economy With an Aging Population: Working Paper 2013-07working paperDecember 6, 2013
- reportSeptember 26, 2013
- presentationSeptember 23, 2013
- reportSeptember 17, 2013
- working paperMarch 18, 2013
- blog postJune 14, 2012
Use this menu to filter CBO's publications by topic. From January 2011 forward, all the agency's products are categorized by topic. Cost estimates released prior to the 112th Congress are not categorized by topic.