CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 1 and making 16 tax provisions within H.R. 1 permanent would raise debt-service costs by $687 billion over the 2025–2034 period and increase the bill's cumulative deficit effect to $4.5 trillion.
Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
ReportCBO estimates that debt-service costs under H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, would total $551 billion over the 2025–2034 period—increasing the bill's cumulative effect on the deficit to $3.0 trillion.
ReportExtending the 10-year budget projections it published on January 17, 2025, CBO projects that federal debt held by the public, boosted by sustained deficits, will grow far beyond any previously recorded level over the next 30 years.
ReportIn CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is $1.9 trillion this year, and federal debt rises to 118 percent of GDP in 2035. Economic growth slows and inflation declines over the next two years; both remain moderate after 2026.
ReportIn CBO’s projections, the deficit totals nearly $2 trillion this year. Large deficits push federal debt held by the public to 122 percent of GDP in 2034. Economic growth slows to 2.0 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2026 and later years.
ReportCBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under different assumptions about future legislated policies.
ReportIn CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.
ReportCBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2022 to 2032 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1972.