Budget

Outlook for the Budget and the Economy

CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook, typically produced in January each year and updated in August, includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law—known as baseline projections—over the next 10 years. CBO also updates its budget projections each spring in conjunction with its analysis of the President's budgetary proposals. By showing outcomes if current laws generally remained in place, the baseline projections provide the Congress with a benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed changes in spending and tax laws. CBO also analyzes the long-term budget outlook.

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BUDGET PROJECTIONS FOR FY 2025

(As of )

OUTLAYS

$7.0 Trillion

REVENUES

$5.2 Trillion

DEFICIT

$1.9 Trillion

DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC (End of Fiscal Year)

$30.1 Trillion

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR CY 2025

(As of )

REAL GDP GROWTH (Q4/Q4)

1.9%

INFLATION (PCE Price Index, Q4/Q4)

2.2%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Q4)

4.3%

INTEREST RATE (3-Month Treasury Bills, Q4)

3.8%

  • Report
    The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055

    Extending the 10-year budget projections it published on January 17, 2025, CBO projects that federal debt held by the public, boosted by sustained deficits, will grow far beyond any previously recorded level over the next 30 years.

  • Report
    The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035

    In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is $1.9 trillion this year, and federal debt rises to 118 percent of GDP in 2035. Economic growth slows and inflation declines over the next two years; both remain moderate after 2026.

  • Report
    An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034

    In CBO’s projections, the deficit totals nearly $2 trillion this year. Large deficits push federal debt held by the public to 122 percent of GDP in 2034. Economic growth slows to 2.0 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2026 and later years.

  • United States Capitol Building in Washington, DC
    Report
    Budgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Spending and Revenues

    CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under different assumptions about future legislated policies.

  • Report
    The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034

    In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.

  • Report
    Automatic Stabilizers in the Federal Budget: 2022 to 2032

    CBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2022 to 2032 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1972.