Economy
- Working Paper
How CBO Projects Inflation
This paper describes how CBO projects consumer price inflation.
- Working Paper
Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Working Paper
Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inflation: Implications of Supply Disruptions and Economic Slack: Working Paper 2023-05
This paper provides evidence that supply disruptions, low economic slack, and the interaction of restrained supply with low slack each amplify the effects of expansionary fiscal policies on inflation.
- Working Paper
The U.S. Dollar as an International Currency and Its Economic Effects: Working Paper 2023-04
The U.S. dollar’s status as an international currency has contributed to persistent U.S. trade deficits and, by lowering interest rates, to increased access to credit for U.S. households, businesses, and the federal government.
- Working Paper
The Welfare Effects of Debt: Crowding Out and Risk Shifting: Working Paper 2022-10
This paper extends a 2019 analysis by Olivier Blanchard by separating total estimated welfare effects of debt into crowding-out and risk-shifting components and estimates the effects of those components under alternative assumptions about technology and preferences.
- Working Paper
The Congressional Budget Office’s Small-Scale Policy Model: Working Paper 2022-08
CBO's small-scale policy model determines in one model the short-run demand-driven responses and long-run supply-driven responses to policy changes. It also makes short- and long-run responses depend on the fiscal policy under study.
- Working Paper
Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Economic Projections: Working Paper 2022-07
This paper presents a practical method for assessing the uncertainty of long-term economic projections.
- Working Paper
A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05
CBO developed a Markov-switching model to help incorporate asymmetric dynamics into macroeconomic projections and cost estimates that require simulations of the national unemployment rate.
- Working Paper
Budgetary Implications of Economic Scenarios With Higher and Lower Interest Rates: Working Paper 2022-04
This paper reports CBO’s projections of economic and budgetary outcomes under two scenarios with divergent paths for interest rates.
- Working Paper
Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03
This paper reviews theory and evidence on how consumers and firms form their expectations about inflation and how monetary policymakers might influence that process; both of those factors have implications for CBO's baseline projections and policy analyses.