Medicaid and CHIP
- Report
Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance, 2026 to 2036
Federal subsidies for health insurance total $33.6 trillion over the 2026–2036 period in CBO and JCT's projections. Those estimated subsidies grow from 7.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 to 8.4 percent of GDP in 2036.
- Working Paper
Current Work on the Distributional Analysis of Household Income Resulting From Changes to Medicaid Policies: Working Paper 2026-09
CBO describes a new framework for allocating the budgetary effects of changes to Medicaid policies to households. The framework accounts for changes in income for Medicaid enrollees, health care providers, and private insurers.
- Working Paper
How CBO Estimated the Effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act on the Labor Supply: Working Paper 2026-06
CBO describes how it estimated the effects on the labor supply of provisions in the 2025 reconciliation act related to individual income taxes and the Medicaid program.
- Blog Post
Upcoming Presentations by Staff and Affiliates of CBO's Health Analysis Division
Analysts in CBO's Health Analysis Division are participating in sessions at the 15th Annual Conference of the American Society of Health Economists (ASHEcon) in Minneapolis.
- Presentation
CBO's Baseline Projections of Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance
Presentation by Phill Swagel, Sean Dunbar, Sarah Masi, and Sarah Sajewski.
- Working Paper
Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Macroeconomic Effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act: Working Paper 2026-01
The 2025 reconciliation act included a wide range of provisions that affect policies governing federal revenues and spending. This working paper describes the key methods that CBO used to estimate the law's macroeconomic effects.
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
In CBO's projections, the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2026 is $1.9 trillion, and federal debt rises to 120 percent of GDP in 2036. Economic growth strengthens in 2026 and moderates in later years.
- Cost Estimate
H.R. 3492, Protect Children’s Innocence Act
As passed by the House of Representatives on December 17, 2025
- Report
The Opioid Crisis: Federal Policy Approaches to Reduce Supply, Demand, and Harm
CBO describes three types of policy approaches to address the ongoing opioid crisis and assesses their effectiveness and likely budgetary effects.
- Report
Sensitivity of the Distribution of Household Income to the Treatment of Health Insurance From 1979 to 2021
CBO provides details about how health insurance spending is measured in the agency's Distribution of Household Income report series.