International Trade and Finance
- Blog Post
CBO’s Updated Budgetary Projections of Tariffs as of July 31, 2026
Changes in trade policy through July 31, 2026, result in projected total deficits that are $0.9 trillion larger over the 2027–2036 period than they were in CBO’s February 2026 baseline projections.
- Report
Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
The Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth of the Senate Committee on Finance convened a hearing at which CBO's Director testified. This document provides CBO's answers to questions submitted for the record.
- Presentation
CBO's Conventional Tariff Analysis Model
This slide deck provides an overview of the main model that CBO uses to produce conventional estimates of the budgetary effects of changes in tariffs.
- Working Paper
Using the CBO-EPPA Model to Analyze Carbon Import Tariffs and Export Rebates: Working Paper 2026-03
CBO analyzes the effects of carbon import tariffs and export rebates (implemented along with a carbon tax) on sectoral output, trade, and carbon dioxide emissions and compares them with the effects of a carbon tax alone.
- Blog Post
An Update About CBO's Projections of the Budgetary Effects of Tariffs
CBO provides information about how the recent Supreme Court ruling on tariffs affects the agency's budget projections.
- Working Paper
Estimating the Budgetary Cost of U.S. Commitments to the International Monetary Fund: Working Paper 2026-02
Using a fair-value approach, CBO estimates that the cost of increasing the United States' financial commitment to the International Monetary Fund is about 1.36 percent of the country's current commitment.
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
In CBO's projections, the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2026 is $1.9 trillion, and federal debt rises to 120 percent of GDP in 2036. Economic growth strengthens in 2026 and moderates in later years.
- Cost Estimate
H.R. 6504, Haiti Economic Lift Program Extension Act
As passed by the House of Representatives on January 12, 2026
- Blog Post
CBO's Updated Projections of the Budgetary Effects of Tariffs as of November 15, 2025
Tariffs have changed frequently throughout 2025. CBO has regularly updated Congress about how those changes affect projected tariff revenues. This blog post is the latest in that series.
- Report
CBO's Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2028
CBO provides details about its latest economic projections through 2028, which reflect several substantial changes in federal policy and economic developments that have occurred this year.