Explaining Analytical Methods
- Working Paper
Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Macroeconomic Effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act: Working Paper 2026-01
The 2025 reconciliation act included a wide range of provisions that affect policies governing federal revenues and spending. This working paper describes the key methods that CBO used to estimate the law's macroeconomic effects.
- Report
Estimating the Effects of Changes in Permitting Requirements on Private Investment
CBO provides information about how the agency estimates the effects of changes in permitting requirements on private investment.
- Presentation
Dynamic Analysis of Changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in H.R. 1
This slide deck describes the main mechanisms in CBO's dynamic analysis of H.R. 1, explains the changes to SNAP, and explains the macroeconomic effects and budgetary feedback of those changes.
- Report
How CBO and Joint Committee Staff Prepare Dynamic Analyses
CBO and staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation respond to questions about how they develop estimates of the budgetary and economic effects of legislation.
- Report
Extending Medicaid and CHIP Coverage for Children: Long-Run Budgetary Effects of the President’s 2025 Budget Proposal
CBO estimates how expanding certain children’s eligibility for Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program over the next 10 years would affect the U.S. economy and the federal budget through the end of the century.
- Presentation
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.
- Working Paper
Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Working Paper
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget: Working Paper 2023-07
On a present-value basis, CBO estimates that long-term fiscal effects of Medicaid spending on children could offset half or more of the program’s initial outlays, depending on sets of reasonable parameter values.
- Working Paper
Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inflation: Implications of Supply Disruptions and Economic Slack: Working Paper 2023-05
This paper provides evidence that supply disruptions, low economic slack, and the interaction of restrained supply with low slack each amplify the effects of expansionary fiscal policies on inflation.
- Report
CBO Describes Its Cost-Estimating Process
The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 requires CBO to prepare estimates of the cost of legislation at certain points in the legislative process. This document provides answers to questions about how CBO prepares those cost estimates.