Methods for Analyzing the Uncertainty of Economic and Budget Projections
- Report
Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034
The House Committee on the Budget convened a hearing at which Phillip L. Swagel, CBO's Director, testified. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record.
- Working Paper
Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Presentation
Assessing the Budgetary Implications of Economic Uncertainty With CBO’s Incomes Model and Budgetary Feedback Model
This slide deck outlines the models CBO uses to assess the budgetary effects of alternative economic scenarios such as those presented in CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Budgetary Implications (November 2022).
- Presentation
Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model
This slide deck describes how CBO used a Bayesian vector autoregression model to assess the uncertainty of the economic forecast presented in CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Budgetary Implications (November 2022).
- Presentation
Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Expanded Markov-Switching Model
This slide deck describes how CBO used a Markov-switching model to assess the uncertainty of the economic forecast presented in CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Budgetary Implications (November 2022).
- Working Paper
Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Economic Projections: Working Paper 2022-07
This paper presents a practical method for assessing the uncertainty of long-term economic projections.
- Working Paper
A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05
CBO developed a Markov-switching model to help incorporate asymmetric dynamics into macroeconomic projections and cost estimates that require simulations of the national unemployment rate.
- Presentation
A Presentation on the Budgetary Implications of Economic Scenarios With Higher or Lower Interest Rates
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, at the Spring 2022 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Conference.
- Working Paper
Budgetary Implications of Economic Scenarios With Higher and Lower Interest Rates: Working Paper 2022-04
This paper reports CBO’s projections of economic and budgetary outcomes under two scenarios with divergent paths for interest rates.