Methods for Analyzing the Economic Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes
- Working Paper
Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Macroeconomic Effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act: Working Paper 2026-01
The 2025 reconciliation act included a wide range of provisions that affect policies governing federal revenues and spending. This working paper describes the key methods that CBO used to estimate the law's macroeconomic effects.
- Presentation
Dynamic Analysis of Changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in H.R. 1
This slide deck describes the main mechanisms in CBO's dynamic analysis of H.R. 1, explains the changes to SNAP, and explains the macroeconomic effects and budgetary feedback of those changes.
- Report
Budgetary and Economic Effects of Increases in Tariffs Implemented Between January 6 and May 13, 2025
CBO estimates the budgetary and economic effects of increases in tariffs that were implemented through executive action between January 6 and May 13, 2025.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed the effects on the budget and the economy of eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s extended baseline—six that vary economic conditions and two that vary budgetary conditions.
- Report
Business Tax Credits for Wind and Solar Power
CBO provides an overview of federal tax credits that support investment in wind and solar electric power. The agency also explains how it assesses the credits’ budgetary and economic effects and how its baseline reflects JCT’s revenue estimates.
- Working Paper
Understanding the Relationship Between Changes to Federal Fiscal Policy and Near-Term Real GDP Growth: Working Paper 2025-01
This working paper introduces two measures that highlight the relationship between changes in federal fiscal policy and economic growth and includes projections of those measures through fiscal year 2026.
- Report
Effects of Illustrative Policies That Would Increase Tariffs
CBO provides a preliminary assessment of the budgetary, economic, and distributional effects of three policies that would raise tariff rates on goods imported into the United States.
- Blog Post
Additional Information About the Effects of Expiring Provisions of the 2017 Tax Act in CBO’s Baseline Projections
CBO’s Director describes how expiring provisions of the 2017 tax act affect the agency’s baseline projections and reviews some information that has become available since CBO first estimated the effects of the tax act in April 2018.
- Presentation
CBO’s Model for Estimating the Effects on New Investment of Deductions to Recover the Cost of Capital
CBO describes how it uses its capital tax model, called CapTax, to estimate the effects that changes in deductions to recover the cost of new investment have on the incentives to invest in capital.
- Presentation
How the Expiring Individual Income Tax Provisions in the 2017 Tax Act Affect CBO’s Economic Forecast
CBO’s economic forecast reflects current law, including the expiration, at the end of 2025, of some provisions of the 2017 tax act. CBO analyzed how the expiration of those provisions affected projections that it published in February 2024.