Methods for Analyzing the Economic Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes
- Working Paper
Estimating the Economic Effects of Federally Funded R&D: Working Paper 2026-08
CBO describes its current analytical framework for modeling the economic effects of changes in federal funding for R&D, focusing on two approaches that CBO has developed: an R&D capital stock approach and an R&D components approach.
- Working Paper
How CBO Estimated the Effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act on the Labor Supply: Working Paper 2026-06
CBO describes how it estimated the effects on the labor supply of provisions in the 2025 reconciliation act related to individual income taxes and the Medicaid program.
- Presentation
CBO's Conventional Tariff Analysis Model
This slide deck provides an overview of the main model that CBO uses to produce conventional estimates of the budgetary effects of changes in tariffs.
- Presentation
Estimating the Economic Effects of Federal Investment in Research and Development
Presentation about work by Sheila Campbell, Jaeger Nelson, Eli Schrag, Heidi Williams, and Caleb Wroblewski at the NBER Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy Conference.
- Working Paper
Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Macroeconomic Effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act: Working Paper 2026-01
The 2025 reconciliation act included a wide range of provisions that affect policies governing federal revenues and spending. This working paper describes the key methods that CBO used to estimate the law's macroeconomic effects.
- Presentation
Dynamic Analysis of Changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in H.R. 1
This slide deck describes the main mechanisms in CBO's dynamic analysis of H.R. 1, explains the changes to SNAP, and explains the macroeconomic effects and budgetary feedback of those changes.
- Report
Budgetary and Economic Effects of Increases in Tariffs Implemented Between January 6 and May 13, 2025
CBO estimates the budgetary and economic effects of increases in tariffs that were implemented through executive action between January 6 and May 13, 2025.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed the effects on the budget and the economy of eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s extended baseline—six that vary economic conditions and two that vary budgetary conditions.
- Report
Business Tax Credits for Wind and Solar Power
CBO provides an overview of federal tax credits that support investment in wind and solar electric power. The agency also explains how it assesses the credits’ budgetary and economic effects and how its baseline reflects JCT’s revenue estimates.
- Working Paper
Understanding the Relationship Between Changes to Federal Fiscal Policy and Near-Term Real GDP Growth: Working Paper 2025-01
This working paper introduces two measures that highlight the relationship between changes in federal fiscal policy and economic growth and includes projections of those measures through fiscal year 2026.