Methods for Analyzing the Economic Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes
- Working Paper
Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.
- Report
The Economic and Budgetary Effects of Discretionary Funding Caps as Specified in the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023
CBO has estimated what the economic and budgetary effects would be if the discretionary funding caps enacted in June 2023 had been those required under H.R. 2811, the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023.
- Working Paper
The Congressional Budget Office’s Small-Scale Policy Model: Working Paper 2022-08
CBO's small-scale policy model determines in one model the short-run demand-driven responses and long-run supply-driven responses to policy changes. It also makes short- and long-run responses depend on the fiscal policy under study.
- Working Paper
Economic Effects of Five Illustrative Single-Payer Health Care Systems: Working Paper 2022-02
CBO used a general-equilibrium, overlapping-generations model to analyze the economic and distributional implications of five illustrative single-payer health care systems. The working paper builds on previous CBO studies about single-payer health care systems.
- Report
Effects of Physical Infrastructure Spending on the Economy and the Budget Under Two Illustrative Scenarios
CBO examined two illustrative scenarios that would boost federal funding for a mix of types of physical infrastructure by $500 billion over 10 years. The two scenarios differ in how the additional spending would be financed.
- Presentation
CBO’s Policy Growth Model
The Policy Growth Model is one in a suite of models that CBO uses to analyze how economic growth and the federal budget interact.
- Working Paper
The Economic Effects of Financing a Large and Permanent Increase in Government Spending: Working Paper 2021-03
This working paper analyzes the long-term economic effects of financing a large and permanent increase in government expenditures of 5 percent to 10 percent of gross domestic product annually.
- Working Paper
Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output: Working Paper 2020-07
This paper describes key methods that the Congressional Budget Office used to estimate the effects on economic output of the laws enacted in response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.
- Working Paper
A Simplified Model of How Macroeconomic Changes Affect the Federal Budget: Working Paper 2020-01
CBO uses the budgetary feedback model (BFM) to estimate how changes in the macroeconomy might affect the federal budget. This paper describes how the BFM is constructed, how it is used in CBO's dynamic analyses, and the model's limitations.