Methods for Analyzing the Economic Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes
- Working Paper
Estimating the Economic Effects of Federally Funded R&D: Working Paper 2026-08
CBO describes its current analytical framework for modeling the economic effects of changes in federal funding for R&D, focusing on two approaches that CBO has developed: an R&D capital stock approach and an R&D components approach.
- Working Paper
How CBO Estimated the Effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act on the Labor Supply: Working Paper 2026-06
CBO describes how it estimated the effects on the labor supply of provisions in the 2025 reconciliation act related to individual income taxes and the Medicaid program.
- Working Paper
Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Macroeconomic Effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act: Working Paper 2026-01
The 2025 reconciliation act included a wide range of provisions that affect policies governing federal revenues and spending. This working paper describes the key methods that CBO used to estimate the law's macroeconomic effects.
- Report
Budgetary and Economic Effects of Increases in Tariffs Implemented Between January 6 and May 13, 2025
CBO estimates the budgetary and economic effects of increases in tariffs that were implemented through executive action between January 6 and May 13, 2025.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed the effects on the budget and the economy of eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s extended baseline—six that vary economic conditions and two that vary budgetary conditions.
- Report
Business Tax Credits for Wind and Solar Power
CBO provides an overview of federal tax credits that support investment in wind and solar electric power. The agency also explains how it assesses the credits’ budgetary and economic effects and how its baseline reflects JCT’s revenue estimates.
- Working Paper
Revisiting the Relationship Between Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates: Working Paper 2024-05
This working paper extends a previous CBO analysis that estimates the relationship between federal government debt and long-term interest rates, a key parameter in the agency’s long-run projections of interest rates.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed the effects on the budget and the economy of eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s extended baseline—six that vary economic conditions and two that vary budgetary conditions.
- Working Paper
Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.