Methods for Baseline Economic Projections
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055
Extending the 10-year budget projections it published on January 17, 2025, CBO projects that federal debt held by the public, boosted by sustained deficits, will grow far beyond any previously recorded level over the next 30 years.
- Working Paper
Revisiting the Relationship Between Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates: Working Paper 2024-05
This working paper extends a previous CBO analysis that estimates the relationship between federal government debt and long-term interest rates, a key parameter in the agency’s long-run projections of interest rates.
- Working Paper
How CBO Projects Inflation
This paper describes how CBO projects consumer price inflation.
- Presentation
How CBO Forecasts Inflation
Presentation by Bob Arnold, Unit Chief in CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the Society of Actuaries.
- Working Paper
Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03
This paper reviews theory and evidence on how consumers and firms form their expectations about inflation and how monetary policymakers might influence that process; both of those factors have implications for CBO's baseline projections and policy analyses.
- Working Paper
CBO’s Model and Projections of U.S. International Investment Holdings and Income Flows: Working Paper 2021-10
Projections from CBO’s international financial forecasting model show the U.S. net international investment position rising modestly over the 10-year forecast period. Net international income is expected to rise as a share of GDP through 2023 before declining through 2031.
- Working Paper
The Historical Decline in Real Interest Rates and Its Implications for CBO’s Projections: Working Paper 2020-09
CBO describes the methods that it uses to project interest rates.
- Working Paper
CBO's Oil Price Forecasting Record: Working Paper 2020-03
Oil prices are one of the economic variables that underlie CBO's projections of the federal budget. This paper describes CBO's methods to forecast oil prices and evaluates the quality of the agency's historical forecasts.
- Working Paper
CBO’s Model for Forecasting Business Investment: Working Paper 2018-09
This paper presents CBO’s model of business investment, compares it with other models of investment, shows how the model is estimated, and discusses how CBO uses the model to forecast investment.
- Working Paper
CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04
Describing the methods used to produce CBO’s projections of labor force participation rates, this paper examines the recent trends in the overall and prime-age labor force participation rates and whether those trends persist over 10 years.