The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook according to CBO's extended baseline projections, which show budget deficits and federal debt held by the public growing steadily in relation to gross domestic product over the next three decades.
In CBO’s projections, the size of the U.S. population increases from 335 million people in 2022 to 369 million people in 2052. Population growth is increasingly driven by net immigration, which accounts for all population growth in 2043 and beyond.
In CBO and JCT’s projections, net federal subsidies in 2022 for insured people under age 65 are $997 billion. In 2032, that annual amount is projected to reach $1.6 trillion.
In CBO’s projections, assuming that current laws generally remain unchanged, the federal deficit totals $1.0 trillion in fiscal year 2022 and averages $1.6 trillion per year from 2023 to 2032. Real GDP grows by 3.1 percent this year.
- Cost Estimate
As provided to CBO on April 4, 2022, by the Senate Committee on Appropriations
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, to the Council for Affordable Health Coverage.
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, at Brown University.
- Blog Post
CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses the agency’s budget and economic analysis during the pandemic.
The Budgetary Effects of Major Laws Enacted in Response to the 2020–2021 Coronavirus Pandemic, December 2020 and March 2021
CBO describes how two laws enacted in December 2020 and March 2021 in response to the 2020–2021 coronavirus pandemic will affect federal spending, revenues, and the deficit.
CBO provides additional detail about its latest baseline projections, which were published on July 1, 2021. The projected deficit for 2021 is $3.0 trillion, $126 billion less than the deficit recorded last year.