Dynamic Analysis
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Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Ryan, April 2014
Under budgetary paths, but not particular policies, specified by Chairman Ryan, total deficits and debt would be smaller than under CBO’s extended baseline. Economic output would be lower in the next few years but higher thereafter.
- Working Paper
The Long-Run Effects of Federal Budget Deficits on National Saving and Private Domestic Investment: Working Paper 2014-02
This paper reviews CBO’s estimates of the effects of changes in federal deficits on national saving and private domestic investment.
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The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
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The Economic Impact of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act
S. 744 would boost economic output—CBO projects—by 3.3 percent in 2023 and by 5.4 percent in 2033. Employment, investment, and productivity would increase, but average wages would be less than under current law until 2025.
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Macroeconomic Effects of Alternative Budgetary Paths
CBO examined three budgetary paths that would increase or reduce budget deficits relative to current law. Through 2023, those paths would result in considerably different trajectories of federal debt and the nation’s output and income.
- Working Paper
A Review of Recent Research on Labor Supply Elasticities: Working Paper 2012-12
A Review of Recent Research on Labor Supply Elasticities
- Blog Post
How Does CBO Model the Response of Labor Supply to Changes in Tax and Spending Policies?
Although much of the analysis that CBO undertakes is very technical in nature, the agency works hard to explain the basis for its findings so that Members of Congress, their staff, and outside analysts can understand the results and question the methods used.
- Working Paper
Review of Estimates of the Frisch Elasticity of Labor Supply: Working Paper 2012-13
Review of Estimates of the Frisch Elasticity of Labor Supply
- Report
The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Over the past few years, the federal government has been recording budget deficits that are the largest as a share of the economy since 1945. Consequently, the amount of federal debt held by the public has surged.
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The Economic Impact of the President's 2013 Budget
In its analysis of the President’s proposals excluding any macroeconomic effects, CBO concluded that the federal budget deficit would equal $1.3 trillion in fiscal year 2012 and would decline to about $1.0 trillion in 2013.