- Working Paper
This paper discusses how CBO constructs “synthetic firms”—businesses composed of artificial groups of workers—used in the agency’s health insurance simulation model, or HISIM2, which underlies projections of insurance coverage.
- Working Paper
This paper describes the methods and data that CBO uses to estimate the cost of market risk for three categories of federal credit programs: housing and real estate loans, student loans and other consumer loans, and commercial loans.
- Working Paper
CBO provides estimates of how much state and local governments that receive federal grants for highway capital projects substitute that funding for their own spending on highway capital.
- Working Paper
This paper examines how the federal budget deficit would have differed in 2018 under four scenarios that vary the distribution of labor earnings while leaving aggregate earnings unchanged.
- Working Paper
Distributional Effects of Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions With a Carbon Tax: Working Paper 2021-11
This paper describes CBO’s method for measuring the distributional effects of a tax on carbon emissions and the agency’s rationale for choosing that method, while also comparing it with CBO’s prior method and methods used by other researchers.
- Working Paper
Projections from CBO’s international financial forecasting model show the U.S. net international investment position rising modestly over the 10-year forecast period. Net international income is expected to rise as a share of GDP through 2023 before declining through 2031.
- Working Paper
This paper presents CBO's simulation model for analyzing legislative proposals that may substantially affect new drug development.
- Working Paper
This paper explores the practical questions raised by fair-value budgeting: Which government activities would benefit from it? How might it be used? How can agencies estimate fair value without observing market prices for government risks?
- Working Paper
This paper explores the benefits and costs of governmental risk taking in formal models of market imperfections, in which the government serves as an intermediary between different stakeholders in its finances.
- Working Paper
This working paper combines theory and existing empirical evidence to revisit the extent to which payroll taxes are passed through to employees. The estimates rely on stylized models and are complemented by a discussion of the empirical literature on payroll tax incidence.