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  • Working Paper

    "Lesser-of" Payment Policies and the Use of Physicians' Services Among Dual-Eligible Beneficiaries: Working Paper 2023-01

    January 6, 2023

    This paper examines the effects of physician payment reductions on the use of physicians' services by dual-eligible beneficiaries—people enrolled in both Medicare and Medicaid—over the 1999–2012 period.

  • Working Paper

    The Welfare Effects of Debt: Crowding Out and Risk Shifting: Working Paper 2022-10

    December 16, 2022

    This paper extends a 2019 analysis by Olivier Blanchard by separating total estimated welfare effects of debt into crowding-out and risk-shifting components and estimates the effects of those components under alternative assumptions about technology and preferences.

  • Working Paper

    Current Work on the Distributional Analysis of Household Income Resulting From Policy Changes: Working Paper 2022-09

    December 15, 2022

    This paper introduces a standardized framework to analyze how policy changes alter the distribution of household income to complement CBO’s analyses of policy changes’ budgetary and economic effects.

  • Working Paper

    The Congressional Budget Office’s Small-Scale Policy Model: Working Paper 2022-08

    September 22, 2022

    CBO's small-scale policy model determines in one model the short-run demand-driven responses and long-run supply-driven responses to policy changes. It also makes short- and long-run responses depend on the fiscal policy under study.

  • Working Paper

    Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Economic Projections: Working Paper 2022-07

    April 25, 2022

    This paper presents a practical method for assessing the uncertainty of long-term economic projections.

  • Working Paper

    A Model for Pricing Federal Housing Finance Obligations: Working Paper 2022-06

    April 19, 2022

    This paper presents a risk-neutral approach that CBO uses to inform its estimates of the fair-value cost of mortgage obligations.

  • Working Paper

    A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05

    March 28, 2022

    CBO developed a Markov-switching model to help incorporate asymmetric dynamics into macroeconomic projections and cost estimates that require simulations of the national unemployment rate.

  • Working Paper

    Budgetary Implications of Economic Scenarios With Higher and Lower Interest Rates: Working Paper 2022-04

    March 24, 2022

    This paper reports CBO’s projections of economic and budgetary outcomes under two scenarios with divergent paths for interest rates.

  • Working Paper

    Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03

    March 15, 2022

    This paper reviews theory and evidence on how consumers and firms form their expectations about inflation and how monetary policymakers might influence that process; both of those factors have implications for CBO's baseline projections and policy analyses.

  • Working Paper

    Economic Effects of Five Illustrative Single-Payer Health Care Systems: Working Paper 2022-02

    February 23, 2022

    CBO used a general-equilibrium, overlapping-generations model to analyze the economic and distributional implications of five illustrative single-payer health care systems. The working paper builds on previous CBO studies about single-payer health care systems.

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