Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Economic Projections: Working Paper 2022-07

This paper presents a practical method for assessing the uncertainty of long-term economic projections.

A Model for Pricing Federal Housing Finance Obligations: Working Paper 2022-06

This paper presents a risk-neutral approach that CBO uses to inform its estimates of the fair-value cost of mortgage obligations.

A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05

CBO developed a Markov-switching model to help incorporate asymmetric dynamics into macroeconomic projections and cost estimates that require simulations of the national unemployment rate.

Budgetary Implications of Economic Scenarios With Higher and Lower Interest Rates: Working Paper 2022-04

This paper reports CBO’s projections of economic and budgetary outcomes under two scenarios with divergent paths for interest rates.

Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03

This paper reviews theory and evidence on how consumers and firms form their expectations about inflation and how monetary policymakers might influence that process; both of those factors have implications for CBO's baseline projections and policy analyses.

Economic Effects of Five Illustrative Single-Payer Health Care Systems: Working Paper 2022-02

CBO used a general-equilibrium, overlapping-generations model to analyze the economic and distributional implications of five illustrative single-payer health care systems. The working paper builds on previous CBO studies about single-payer health care systems.

CBO’s Model for Estimating the Effect That Federal Taxes Have on Capital Income From New Investment: Working Paper 2022-01

CBO has developed a model to estimate the effect that federal taxes have on capital income from new investment; it uses that model to help estimate how changes in tax law would affect the economy.

How Carbon Dioxide Emissions Would Respond to a Tax or Allowance Price: An Update: Working Paper 2021-16

CBO describes its recent update of parameters that characterize the relationship between emissions of carbon dioxide and changes in the price of those emissions.

Data and Methods for Constructing Synthetic Firms in CBO’s Health Insurance Simulation Model, HISIM2: Working Paper 2021-15

This paper discusses how CBO constructs “synthetic firms”—businesses composed of artificial groups of workers—used in the agency’s health insurance simulation model, or HISIM2, which underlies projections of insurance coverage.

How CBO Estimates the Market Risk of Federal Credit Programs: Working Paper 2021-14

This paper describes the methods and data that CBO uses to estimate the cost of market risk for three categories of federal credit programs: housing and real estate loans, student loans and other consumer loans, and commercial loans.