How the Effects of Inflation on Households Varied by Income, 1984 to 2022: Working Paper 2025-04

CBO estimates that between 1984 and 2022, changes in the price of household personal consumption expenditures were larger for lower-income households than for higher-income households.

A Survey-Based Shifting-Endpoint Dynamic Term Structure Model of Interest Rates: Working Paper 2025-03

This working paper presents a dynamic term structure model of interest rates that features a shifting endpoint and incorporates survey forecasts of interest rates to sharpen the model’s implied forecasts and estimate trend interest rates.

The Effects of Climate Change on GDP in the 21st Century: Working Paper 2025-02

This working paper provides an estimate of a probability distribution of changes in gross domestic product in the year 2100 resulting from changes in temperature.

Understanding the Relationship Between Changes to Federal Fiscal Policy and Near-Term Real GDP Growth: Working Paper 2025-01

This working paper introduces two measures that highlight the relationship between changes in federal fiscal policy and economic growth and includes projections of those measures through fiscal year 2026.

Revisiting the Relationship Between Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates: Working Paper 2024-05

This working paper extends a previous CBO analysis that estimates the relationship between federal government debt and long-term interest rates, a key parameter in the agency’s long-run projections of interest rates.

The Effects of Flood Damage on the Subsidy Cost of Federally Backed Mortgages: Working Paper 2024-04

CBO uses data on mortgages and expected flood damage for each residential property in the United States to examine how much flood damage is expected to increase the cost of federally backed mortgages.

Flood Damage Avoided by Potential Spending on Property-Level Adaptations: Working Paper 2024-03

This working paper provides estimates of the flood damage avoided from property buyouts and elevations and analyzes how the effects of adaptation spending could vary across regions, by area income, and for different subsets of projects.

How CBO Uses the ReEDS Model to Analyze Policies in the Electric Power Sector: Working Paper 2024-02

This working paper provides an overview of CBO-ReEDS, an adapted version of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Regional Energy Deployment System (NREL’s ReEDS) model for analyzing policies in the electric power sector.

How CBO Projects Inflation

This paper describes how CBO projects consumer price inflation.

Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08

This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.