"Lesser-of" Payment Policies and the Use of Physicians' Services Among Dual-Eligible Beneficiaries: Working Paper 2023-01

This paper examines the effects of physician payment reductions on the use of physicians' services by dual-eligible beneficiaries—people enrolled in both Medicare and Medicaid—over the 1999–2012 period.

The Welfare Effects of Debt: Crowding Out and Risk Shifting: Working Paper 2022-10

This paper extends a 2019 analysis by Olivier Blanchard by separating total estimated welfare effects of debt into crowding-out and risk-shifting components and estimates the effects of those components under alternative assumptions about technology and preferences.

Current Work on the Distributional Analysis of Household Income Resulting From Policy Changes: Working Paper 2022-09

This paper introduces a standardized framework to analyze how policy changes alter the distribution of household income to complement CBO’s analyses of policy changes’ budgetary and economic effects.

The Congressional Budget Office’s Small-Scale Policy Model: Working Paper 2022-08

CBO's small-scale policy model determines in one model the short-run demand-driven responses and long-run supply-driven responses to policy changes. It also makes short- and long-run responses depend on the fiscal policy under study.

Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Economic Projections: Working Paper 2022-07

This paper presents a practical method for assessing the uncertainty of long-term economic projections.

A Model for Pricing Federal Housing Finance Obligations: Working Paper 2022-06

This paper presents a risk-neutral approach that CBO uses to inform its estimates of the fair-value cost of mortgage obligations.

A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05

CBO developed a Markov-switching model to help incorporate asymmetric dynamics into macroeconomic projections and cost estimates that require simulations of the national unemployment rate.

Budgetary Implications of Economic Scenarios With Higher and Lower Interest Rates: Working Paper 2022-04

This paper reports CBO’s projections of economic and budgetary outcomes under two scenarios with divergent paths for interest rates.

Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03

This paper reviews theory and evidence on how consumers and firms form their expectations about inflation and how monetary policymakers might influence that process; both of those factors have implications for CBO's baseline projections and policy analyses.

Economic Effects of Five Illustrative Single-Payer Health Care Systems: Working Paper 2022-02

CBO used a general-equilibrium, overlapping-generations model to analyze the economic and distributional implications of five illustrative single-payer health care systems. The working paper builds on previous CBO studies about single-payer health care systems.