Fair-Value Cost Estimation and Government Cash Flows: Working Paper 2021-05

Fair-value budget estimates reflect cash flows that are weighted by the value market participants would place on different scenarios instead of the average of their possible amounts.

Discrete Choice Models for Estimating Labor Supply: Working Paper 2021-04

This paper evaluates discrete choice models as tools for analyzing the effects of tax and transfer policies on labor supply.

The Economic Effects of Financing a Large and Permanent Increase in Government Spending: Working Paper 2021-03

This working paper analyzes the long-term economic effects of financing a large and permanent increase in government expenditures of 5 percent to 10 percent of gross domestic product annually.

Estimating the Legal Status of Foreign-Born People: Working Paper 2021-02

This paper explains CBO’s methods for estimating the number of residents without legal status and imputing legal status by using individual-level data from federal surveys.

CBO’s Model of Drug Price Negotiations Under the Elijah E. Cummings Lower Drug Costs Now Act: Working Paper 2021-01

This working paper describes CBO's simulation model of drug price negotiations under the Elijah E. Cummings Lower Drug Costs Now Act in detail, including its data sources and parameter values, and the sensitivity of the results.

The Historical Decline in Real Interest Rates and Its Implications for CBO’s Projections: Working Paper 2020-09

CBO describes the methods that it uses to project interest rates.

How CBO Analyzes the Costs of Proposals for Single-Payer Health Care Systems That Are Based on Medicare’s Fee-for-Service Program: Working Paper 2020-08

CBO describes the methods it has developed to analyze the federal budgetary costs of proposals for single-payer health care systems that are based on the Medicare fee-for-service program.

Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output: Working Paper 2020-07

This paper describes key methods that the Congressional Budget Office used to estimate the effects on economic output of the laws enacted in response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.

CBO’s Projection of the Effect of Climate Change on U.S. Economic Output: Working Paper 2020-06

This paper describes how CBO constructed its projection of the effect of climate change on U.S. output, how the projected effect should be interpreted, limitations of the analysis, and the central climate-change scenario that CBO used.

Labor Market Effects of Tax Changes in Times of High and Low Unemployment: Working Paper 2020-05

The results of this analysis indicate that tax changes have significant effects on labor market outcomes, but those effects vary depending on the state of the economy at the time a tax change is implemented.