Projected Composition of the U.S. Military's Fleet of Fighter Aircraft Through 2040
Report
CBO projects that the military's fighter fleet will shrink from about 3,300 aircraft now to about 3,000 by 2029 and then grow to 3,600 aircraft by 2040. Starting in 2033, more than half the fleet will be harder-to-detect stealthy aircraft.
In 2025, the Department of Defense (DoD) operated about 3,300 fighter aircraft. In this report, the Congressional Budget Office projects how the size and composition of DoD's various fleets of fighter aircraft will change through 2040. CBO's projection is based on the expected service lives of today's fighter aircraft, DoD's plans for acquiring new aircraft, and discussions with subject matter experts in cases where official plans have not yet been defined. (This report updates and complements previous research by CBO on various aspects of fighter aircraft; that research is included below in "Related Publications.")
CBO's projection identifies the following key points:
Fleet Sizes. The U.S. military's total fighter fleet will shrink to about 3,000 aircraft by 2029 but then grow steadily from 2031 to 2040, reaching 3,600 aircraft. That shrinking and subsequent growth will occur largely in the Air Force's fighter fleets. In 2030, F-35As will supplant F-16C/Ds as DoD's largest fighter fleet, although the military will still operate more than 600 F-16C/Ds in 2040, CBO projects.
Stealthy Aircraft. In 2025, 27 percent of DoD's fighter aircraft were fifth-generation stealthy aircraft, which have airframes designed to make them more difficult for adversaries to detect. CBO projects that starting in 2033, more than 50 percent of DoD's fighter aircraft will be stealthy.
Aircraft Ages. The Air Force's fighter aircraft are much older, on average, than those of the Department of the Navy (DoN): 27.7 and 14.7 years old, respectively, in 2025. (DoN comprises the Navy and the Marine Corps, whose fighter aircraft were not differentiated in the data CBO used for this projection.) The average age of the Air Force's fighters peaked at 28.2 in 2024 and is projected to decline through 2037, before starting to increase again. The average age of DoN's fighters peaked at 16.6 in 2018, declined thereafter, and will start increasing again after 2026.
Interactive
Future Availability and Use. CBO projects that the average amount of time the military's fighter aircraft are available for use and are flown in a given year will decline between 2026 and 2040, even though the overall fleet will be younger, on average, than it was in 2025. Having more stealthy F-35 aircraft in the fleet—which have proved to be more difficult to maintain than their nonstealthy predecessor aircraft of the same age—will reduce the fighter fleet's availability and usage rates, CBO projects. Of course, DoD could make choices that would result in different availability and usage rates than the ones in CBO's projection.
