As reported by the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry on October 27, 2025
By Fiscal Year, Millions of Dollars | 2026 | 2026-2031 | 2026-2036 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct Spending (Outlays) | 0 | 3 | 6 | ||||||||
Revenues | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
Increase or Decrease (-) in the Deficit | 0 | 3 | 6 | ||||||||
Spending Subject to Appropriation (Outlays) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
Increases net direct spending in any of the four consecutive 10-year periods beginning in 2037? | < $2.5 billion | Statutory pay-as-you-go procedures apply? | Yes | ||||||||
Mandate Effects | |||||||||||
Increases on-budget deficits in any of the four consecutive 10-year periods beginning in 2037? | < $5 billion | Contains intergovernmental mandate? | No | ||||||||
Contains private-sector mandate? | No | ||||||||||
On This Page
S. 638 would require the Department of Agriculture (USDA) to revise its annual payments to the State of Minnesota that are distributed to three counties (Cook, Lake, and St. Louis) that contain national forest land. Under current law, USDA pays the state based on the most recent fair appraised value of the land (currently 2018), which it updates every 10 years. The bill would require USDA to base those payments on the highest historically appraised value.
Under current law, USDA will reassess the fair appraised value of the national forest land in 2028. Because CBO has no basis to estimate what that new value will be, we project that the value of the appraised land in 2028 will equal the appraised value in 2018. (The actual value could be higher or lower than CBO’s projection.) Using information from USDA, CBO estimates that the annual payments would increase by roughly $600,000 to reflect the highest assessed value, which was in 2008, and would total $6 million over the 2026-2036 period. Based on the average time it takes for payments to reflect the reassessment, CBO expects that the 2028 appraisal would affect payments beginning in 2030.
CBO’s estimate of direct spending under S. 638 is subject to significant uncertainty. Costs under the bill could be higher or lower than CBO estimates depending on the 2028 fair appraised value of the land. If the appraised value is higher than in 2018, then costs would be lower and if the appraised value is lower than in 2018, costs would be higher.
The CBO staff contact for this estimate is Emma Uebelhor. The estimate was reviewed by H. Samuel Papenfuss, Deputy Director of Budget Analysis.
Phillip L. Swagel
Director, Congressional Budget Office