By Fiscal Year, Millions of Dollars | 2026 | 2026-2031 | 2026-2036 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct Spending (Outlays) | * | * | * | ||||||||
Revenues | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
Increase or Decrease (-) in the Deficit | * | * | * | ||||||||
Spending Subject to Appropriation (Outlays) | * | 1,331 | not estimated | ||||||||
Increases net direct spending in any of the four consecutive 10-year periods beginning in 2037? | No | Statutory pay-as-you-go procedures apply? | Yes | ||||||||
Mandate Effects | |||||||||||
Increases on-budget deficits in any of the four consecutive 10-year periods beginning in 2037? | No | Contains intergovernmental mandate? | No | ||||||||
Contains private-sector mandate? | No | ||||||||||
* = between -$500,000 and $500,000. | |||||||||||
The bill would
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Estimated budgetary effects would mainly stem from
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Bill Summary
In addition, the act would require HHS to collect certain information about potential sponsors and the adults in their households, including Social Security numbers and immigration status, and to share that information with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
Estimated Federal Cost
Table 1. Estimated Budgetary Effects of H.R. 4371 | |||||||
By Fiscal Year, Millions of Dollars | |||||||
2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2026-2031 | |
Increases in Spending Subject to Appropriation | |||||||
Estimated Authorization | * | 161 | 192 | 224 | 326 | 428 | 1,331 |
Estimated Outlays | * | 161 | 192 | 224 | 326 | 428 | 1,331 |
* = between zero and $500,000. CBO also estimates that enacting H.R. 4371 would decrease direct spending by less than $500,000 over the 2026-2036 period. | |||||||
Basis of Estimate
CBO assumes that H.R. 4371 will be enacted in fiscal year 2026.
Background
In fiscal year 2025, lawmakers appropriated $6.4 billion for ORR, and $4.2 billion of that amount was allocated for the care of unaccompanied alien children. In that year, 22,800 children were placed in ORR’s custody, a decrease from 98,400 in 2024.
Direct Spending
H.R. 4371 could affect direct spending by reducing the size of the population that is eligible for emergency Medicaid and certain other federal benefits. H.R. 4371 would require HHS to share information with DHS about all adults in a potential sponsor’s household, including their immigration status. Currently, HHS shares information on potential sponsors only. CBO expects that DHS could use the additional information to increase immigration enforcement, and that as a result, the number of aliens in government custody, as well as the number of aliens removed from the country, could also increase.
Using information from HHS on the number of people who sponsor unaccompanied alien children and historical take-up rates for emergency Medicaid, CBO estimates that any reductions in participation would be small. CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 4371 would decrease direct spending for federal benefits by less than $500,000 over the 2026-2036 period.
Spending Subject to Appropriation
H.R. 4371 would expand the criminal history screenings that potential sponsors and adults in their households undergo, and would restrict sponsorship to U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents. The act also would require ORR to screen all unaccompanied alien children over age 12 for gang affiliation to determine whether they should be placed in secure care.
CBO expects that, under the act, unaccompanied alien children would spend more time in shelter care, thus increasing costs to ORR. Additionally, CBO expects that more children would be placed in foster care and secure care while in ORR custody, instead of staying in shelters. Because foster care and secure care are more expensive than shelter care, that shift also would increase costs to ORR. In total, CBO estimates that implementing H.R. 4371 would cost $1.3 billion over the 2026‑2031 period. Such spending would be subject to the availability of appropriated funds (see Table 2).
Table 2. Estimated Increases in Spending Subject to Appropriation Under H.R. 4371 | |||||||
By Fiscal Year, Millions of Dollars | |||||||
2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2026-2031 | |
Shelter Care | |||||||
Estimated Authorization | * | 110 | 140 | 170 | 250 | 340 | 1,010 |
Estimated Outlays | * | 110 | 140 | 170 | 250 | 340 | 1,010 |
Foster Care and Secure Care | |||||||
Estimated Authorization | * | 50 | 50 | 50 | 70 | 80 | 300 |
Estimated Outlays | * | 50 | 50 | 50 | 70 | 80 | 300 |
Administrative Costs | |||||||
Estimated Authorization | * | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 |
Estimated Outlays | * | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 |
Total Changes | |||||||
Estimated Authorization | * | 161 | 192 | 224 | 326 | 428 | 1,331 |
Estimated Outlays | * | 161 | 192 | 224 | 326 | 428 | 1,331 |
* = between zero and $500,000. | |||||||
Shelter Care. CBO expects that implementing additional screening procedures and requirements for sponsors specified in H.R. 4371 would increase the time that children spend in shelter care. Using historical data, CBO estimates that the average stay in shelter care would increase by about 15 days in each year over the 2027‑2031 period. Additionally, CBO estimates that, under H.R. 4371, between 230 and 350 children who would have been placed in shelter care each year would instead be placed in other types of care. (The basis of that estimate is discussed under “Foster Care and Secure Care.”)
Under current law, CBO expects that 13,000 unaccompanied alien children will be placed in shelter care in 2027, rising to 30,000 children in 2031. In CBO’s projections, the average daily cost for care in shelters for each child will be around $740 in 2027 and rise to $810 in 2031, after adjusting for inflation. Those children will spend an average of 200 days in shelter care in 2027, decreasing to 75 days in 2031.
After adjusting for the children who would be placed in foster care and secure care, CBO estimates that implementing H.R. 4371 would increase spending for shelter care by $110 million in 2027, by $340 million in 2031, and by a total of $1 billion over the 2026‑2031 period.
Foster Care and Secure Care. In each year over the 2027-2031 period, CBO expects that, under H.R. 4371, between 230 and 350 additional children each year would be placed in foster care or secure care. Under current law, those children would be placed in shelter care.
Children are placed in foster care if an appropriate sponsor cannot be found, and CBO anticipates that, under the act, fewer people would be eligible to become sponsors. ORR currently places a child in secure care only if they pose a danger to themselves and other people or have been charged with a criminal offense in the United States. H.R. 4371 would expand the criteria to include children with arrests in other countries. CBO anticipates that, under the act, because ORR would have additional information from other countries, more children would be determined to have been arrested for or convicted of criminal offenses. In addition, under the act, children who have a gang marking or tattoo would be placed in secure care.
CBO expects that children would spend an average of 115 days in foster care or secure care in each year over the 2027-2031 period and that the average daily cost per child will be around $1,900 in 2027 and rise to $2,000 in 2031, after adjusting for inflation.
On that basis, CBO estimates that the cost of placing more children in foster care and secure care would amount to $50 million in 2027, $80 million in 2031, and $300 million over the 2026-2031 period.
Administrative Costs. CBO expects that ORR would request information from foreign embassies and consulates to complete background checks for all unaccompanied alien children over age 12 as required by H.R. 4371. Using information about the cost of similar activities, CBO estimates that implementing background checks would cost $1 million in 2027. That cost would rise to $8 million in 2031 as screening processes are updated and staff compensation increases; in total, CBO estimates that implementing the provision would increase administrative costs for ORR by $21 million over the 2026-2031 period.
Pay-As-You-Go Considerations
Increase in Long-Term Net Direct Spending and Deficits
Mandates
Estimate Prepared By
Mandates: Lucy Marret
Estimate Reviewed By
Elizabeth Cove Delisle
Chief, Income Security Cost Estimates Unit
Kathleen FitzGerald
Chief, Public and Private Mandates Unit
Christina Hawley Anthony
Deputy Director of Budget Analysis
Estimate Approved By

Phillip L. Swagel
Director, Congressional Budget Office